Opinions... [Archive] - goTitans.com

Pit Bull #53

11-13-2006, 03:13 PM

Ok this is just my opinion on guys. I watch college football extensively, and I won't list guys that I haven't seen play. I also get alot of opinions from other people at the other forum I post at (it's a draft board). These are in order, and include juniors.

DE
1: Gaines Adams, Clemon, SR, by far, top 5-10 pick
2: LaMarr Woodley, Michigan, SR
3: Quentin Moses, UGA, SR, who is having a bad year
4: Victor Abiamiri, Notre Dame, SR
5: Tim Crowder, Texas, SR

DT
1: Alan Branch, Michigan, JR, by far, he's easily a top 10 pick if he declares
2: Marcus Thomas, Florida, SR, kicked off the team, he will drop far
3: Quinn Pit****, tOSU, SR
4. Tank Tyler, NCST, SR
5: Amobi Okoye, Louisville, SR, FYI, he's a 19 year old senior!

CB
1: Darrelle Revis, Pitt, JR
2: Leon Hall, Michigan, SR, will be the highest draft pending he doesn't bomb his 40
3: Fred Bennett, South Carolina, SR
4: Marcus McCauley, Fresno St, SR, will go higher if he runs his 40 as expected, not a great year though
5: DeAndre Jackson, Iowa State, SR, will drop in the draft, torn ACL

Safety
1: Reggie Nelson, Florida, JR
2: LaRon Landry, LSU, SR
3: Michael Griffin, Texas, SR
4: Eric Weddle, Utah, SR
5: John Wendling, Wyomig, SR

OG
1. Ben Grubbs, Auburn, SR
2. Justin Blalock, Texas, SR
3. Josh Beekman, BC, SR
4. Manny Ramirez, TTU, SR
5. Mike Jones, Iowa, SR

I did not list RT because I very much disagree about us needing one.

Titans2008

11-13-2006, 03:17 PM

Quentin Moses would not even be on my radar if I was a GM. I like Jamal Anderson at DE. I like Harrell at DT (probably attainable in the 2nd). I like CJ at WR. Don't forget Thomas out of Wisconsin at RT... he should be top 5 worthy from what I hear (haven't seen him play much). I like Aaron Sears in round 2 (has experience at guard and tackle, excels in run blocking, nice size). I'm not high on Landry or Griffin, the two safeties that I've actually seen play. Not sure who I would take there, but I suspect that Lowry might be able to fill that anyways. At CB, I really like the guy out of Cal. I'm not sure where he's projected though. I'm guessing he's off the board in the first sometime.

bigtitan53279

11-13-2006, 03:18 PM

is a RT worth a top ten pick?

Pit Bull #53

11-13-2006, 03:23 PM

is a RT worth a top ten pick?

Levi Brown out of Penn State, maybe, but even that's pushing it. He should be more in the mid-late 1st.

Also, to the other guy, Joe Thomas is a LT.

Bobo

11-13-2006, 04:37 PM

Do we need a better RT than Stewie? I think he's been pretty good so far. I haven't looked back at yesterday's game yet, but I don't remember anything bad. I'd still like to see Amano at OG. The line is still a little bit up in the air, and I wouldn't rule out help, but I think we should take a really good look at what we've got already (including Amano).

If AH stays, I think a top DE is possably the biggest need, but no way I'd rule out a top WR. WR's usally take a little time to develop too, it could be a great match.

Just the most impressive guys I've seen are WR Calvin Johnson, DE LaMarr Woodley, DE Gaines Adams, DT Marcus Thomas, and S Laron Landry.

My homer pics :) (and not 1st pick guys) are Aaron Sears if we want versilte o-line help, and Justin Harrell if we want a DT that will probably come cheaper than what he's worth.

titansfan9

11-13-2006, 06:25 PM

I think we need a guard in the 2nd to takeover after Olson either retires, leaves, or just sucks...

Calvin Johnson though is who I want and who we need...

TitanKid4Life

11-13-2006, 09:47 PM

CJ is the only way, but we do need someone for LT and oppossite of Vanden Bosch, and definately someone in place of hill, y dont we put finnegann there? hes really really good

Titans2008

11-13-2006, 10:01 PM

Levi Brown out of Penn State, maybe, but even that's pushing it. He should be more in the mid-late 1st.

Also, to the other guy, Joe Thomas is a LT.

Well yes, but he can project to either side imo. He is 6-7 310 with the frame to add more weight (according to scout.. maybe added more weight since then). He has the size. The reason he is likely to be at LT at Wisconsin is due to their overall lack of talent/depth. The most athletic/best lineman is put at the most important spot, namely the qb's blindside. Also, he should be adept at run blocking (a need for our team and the main asset you want in a RT) if he is an all-american at Wisconsin. I would wager that they run on 70%+ of their downs.

Titans2008

11-13-2006, 10:02 PM

Still though, I really don't think a RT merits first round consideration since we won't necessarily get a large upgrade over what we have already. I think the pick is better spent elsewhere (DE/WR).

Gut

11-14-2006, 02:35 AM

If you took a D of all avg players and got to add a top 5 pick at any position, there are only 2 that vault the defense above the rest and that is a dominant DT and a dominant DE. The better of the 2 all things being equal is a dominant DE (or pass rushing OLB for a 3-4 D). Case in point...Shawn Merriman.

Despite spending 2 first rnd picks on CB and spending a pretty penny on Hope, our secondary is dismal. A dominant DE can help that dramatically.

I would NOT spend a top 10 pick on a RT. The best RT usually goes around 15-20 range depending on if he has a CHANCE to play LT in the Pros. Forget about a LT cause if he's any good, he'll go top 15 (more likely top 10) and we don't need to spend that kind of jack on a RT. From what I'm seeing of Roos, we don't need another LT.

Please name me any second year QB (besides Marino) that vaulted the offense to new heights drafting a top 5 WR? Plus, as much as I like VY, he needs a lot of work on his throwing technique. Better to improve the rushing attack (better blocking) and protection for VY as well as build a championship caliber D. We can draft a top notch WR the following year if we need to. There are just as many productive WR's drafted outside the 1st rnd as there have been drafted IN the first rnd lately.

The best OG won't be taken 'til late first early second (same with OC). The best DE will be a top 10 pick for sure. Keep in mind though that if we really stink it up record-wise, there is a chance we could land a lot of picks trading down even a few spots so someone can grab a Quin.

And stop talking to me about Calvin Johnson til we see him run a 40.

Gut

Pit Bull #53

11-14-2006, 03:04 AM

40 times are overrated. He can run a 4.5 and he still won't make it out of the top 3 picks.

Besides, it's not blazing speed that makes him what he is. It's his size, body control, leaping ability, hands, work ethic, and better than average speed. The exact same things that make Larry Fitzgerald what he is.

Some will point to Mike Williams, but it wasn't Mike's abilities that failed him. He's immature, continually showed up late to meetings and practices, was lazy, and refused to drop weight. He got in the doghouse and he's never coming out. He's only started 4 games.

TitanKid4Life

11-14-2006, 12:30 PM

40 speed and game speed are a lot different and game speed is all that matters

Bobo

11-14-2006, 04:55 PM

I'm not too worried about CJ's 40, and I don't think it'll be great. What you see of the guy is not really a speed game, but an all around excellent game.

As much as I'd rather have a DE, I wouldn't reach for one and pass on CJ if CJ rates as a better player (and no trade down is possable). Just from what I've seen, CJ would probably rate higher than any DE this year. Maybe any player period.

Vigsted

11-14-2006, 05:15 PM

Who had the fastest 40 time, Harrison or Calico and who would you want on your team?

I'm torn between DE and S in the first round. I guess it depends entirely on who is deemed to be BPA. In the second I'd look for the position we didn't pick in the first or maybe a CB. 3rd round would be a great place to pick up a guard or center.

I don't think we need a RT for other than depth.

Banshee2

11-14-2006, 06:16 PM

bigtitan53279

11-14-2006, 06:23 PM

Anquan Boldin ran a 4.68 (or something like that) in his Pre-draft 40. Raise your hand if you would want that guy on our team right now....That's what I thought. 40 times don't mean that much; I just want a WR with HANDS!
"Eli Manning, projected to be the first overall pick in April, said he was working hard down in Florida on his 40-yard-dash techniques, but would not run until March at the New Orleans Saints facility. As a football personality who spent 12-hour days in the RCA Dome, I understand why team officials might want to see him compete, but I also understand the other side of the logic not to compete. As one prominent agent said to me this week when I asked him if his top clients were working out in Indy, he said 'no, and for two big reasons: Domanick Davis and Anquan Boldin'. Both of those young players last year felt they had to do everything at the combine so they participated and they ran slow. Their draft status was damaged in the eyes of club officials with the slow times.

Why take a slow player when you can take a fast player? Maybe because the "slower" player is a better football player? Davis ran a 4.62, which is a bit too slow for an elite running back. Boldin ran an awful 4.72, which is snails pace for a wide receiver. Of course, both players went on to have excellent rookie seasons in the NFL. Davis ran for 1,031 yards and eight touchdowns as the top rookie running back in the league for Houston and Boldin caught 101 passes for 1,377 yards and eight touchdowns. Their football production far outweighed their 40-yard times, but Davis was drafted in the fourth round and Boldin went in the second round.

They lost a significant amount of money on draft day and most agents I spoke with put the initial blame on the 40-yard dash at the combine."

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/7095858

Pit Bull #53

11-14-2006, 07:07 PM

Boldin, I think, had some type of leg injury when he ran his 40. I could be wrong because I'm going completely off of memory, but I think that's right. Either way, he still wouldn't have been fast had he been healthy, probably in the 4.5s

PragIdealist

11-14-2006, 07:35 PM

I would also think that who is available in FA would be a big factor here as well. I would say De is top priority, but I hope that we can get that in FA. Then I think it depends on how high we are drafting. We still have a tough schedule, so we lose any ties...

If we can take care of DE in FA then I think we probably go WR, though I wouldnt rule out either Peterson, S, or CB.

Again i think it depends on who is available in FA. I also think it depends on how well Thompson and Hilll do the rest of the season. Remeber, these guys are still fairly young too, so we also have to factor in their development as well as their performance.

so basically I see it as wide open, but I leand WR.. just because we have a strong need for a go to guy. FA hasnt been kind to us. And Other needs can probably be filled elsewhere, in a strong way. I would say it most depends on if they think they can get a stand out DE.. if not, then its probably a no brainer.

but thats just my opinion, anyway

Titans2004

11-14-2006, 11:57 PM

I agree that VY won't be the most accurate passer in the league and that is why I think he needs Calvin Johnson. He needs a big receiver that can go up and get the ball out of his frame. A guy that can keep a CB off the ball with his body. WR is a position that takes time to transition in the NFL and also requires a bunch of time to build chemistry. Get VY his go to guy and let them learn together.

I agree that we need to work to build a dominate run game, but as has been pointed out you don't draft RT or OG early in the 1st. If we end up picking mid first then I think we will be in a great position to grab an impact safety or get a guy like Blalock from Texas who can play RT or OG.

I'm not very excited about the DE prospects in the draft. I'd look for a FA.

I'm always a fan of trading down if possible and if CJ isn't on the board when we pick then I try my hardest to trade down.

If Branch comes out and we trade Haynesworth then he might be a decent top 10 DT to grab.

TitanKid4Life

11-15-2006, 12:11 AM

or hows about we trade up to get cj? not a good idea but we would get him, and i dont really see any amazing DE in this draft, for safety tho i like michael griffin and he hits hard

Gut

11-15-2006, 02:07 AM

Someone wants to 'dispel' the 40 time as meaningless....mostly players (because it can knock them out of the draft) and agents because it costs them a lot of money.

Understand it's use. It's not there to say NO player slower than this # can't play. It's used in combination with other tests to determine athletic ability. Is it taken to an extreme? In some cases...yes. I think it's a lot less important for a QB...but even then there are exceptions both in the fastest QB's and the slowest ones. The fastest ones can get a 'second' chance by being great athletes cause they can still be drafted and make the transition to another position (Hines Ward, Randle El, ect). It also can mean a potential superstar (VY, Vick, McNabb) with players who can both run and throw.

But as with everything, you have to have the proper context.

Let's take your WR example....Mike Williams and Boldin. First, Williams didn't run a fast 40...only about a 4.5. This tells you 2 things....he's not gonna simply outrun an NFL CB in a footrace and there are LB's who are faster than he is. Second, he'll have to rely on his route running, cutting ability, hands, body control, ect to earn his paycheck. If one or two of those things breaks down, he's got little chance to be a top NFL player.

And that's REALLY what we're talking about here. Using stats to 'guesstimate' how good a player is gonna be. There are ALWAYS players who defy logic, but they are extremely rare and far between.

I don't think Williams is a good fit in Detroit because Martz's system puts a premium on speed to stretch zones vertically and horizontally. He MIGHT benefit from a change of scenery.

As far as Boldin is concerned, there were gasps when people found out how slow he ran BUT that wasn't close to the fastest 40 he's ever run before the draft AND his game tape showed his speed. He wasn't a big guy with a CB wrapped all over him who had to outbody and outjump a CB. He was blowing by people A LOT!!! If a team ONLY went by that 40 time, they'd be nuts!

But to make this simpler...please list the top 10 WR's who ran a BEST of 4.60 or slower 40 BEFORE the draft. Then list the top 10 WR's in the NFL and see if any of the names are the same. If the names aren't the same, then obviously speed has SOMETHING to do with production as an NFL WR.

If this is too difficult, try and list 10 WR's even STARTING in the NFL who ran 4.60 as their slowest time before the draft? If this is difficult, it should tell you something.

Of course football speed is better than clock speed, but a 4.65 guy doesn't get 4.3 speed by putting on the pads. He can still be very successful...and perhaps even become the best player at your position...but the likelihood is horrendously stacked against you.

Don't believe me? For every Jerry Rice, there's easily 50 WR's who are good and can play (and have good-great college careers) but can't make it in the NFL because they're simply too slow and the rest of their abilities don't make up for it.

Plus, built into the 40 is a measure of your acceleration (which is arguably more important). A slow 40 time usually means slow acceleration and that spells doom most of the time.

It's a harsh reality, but just think of it like the SAT's. SAT's don't tell anyone how smart you are nor do they tell you how successful you'll be in life. What they do is tell colleges who's the MOST likely to graduate from a 4 yr university/college. Period, end of story. Similarly, 40 times tell us who's more likely to succeed in the NFL.

Gut

Gut

11-15-2006, 02:24 AM

bigtitan53279

11-15-2006, 02:25 AM

all i know is when i see calvin johnson in the open field, he usually goes a long way. that's good enough for me.

bigtitan53279

11-15-2006, 02:29 AM

Titans2008

11-15-2006, 12:22 PM

Here's a little question for you...

What level of production do you think justifies picking a WR in the top 5? Write those numbers down and then go look at the WR's drafted in the top 5 the last 4 years and see how many of them lived up to your expectations. Now take a look at the WR's drafted after the top 10 and see if there is better production amongst them. Point is, you're just as likely to grab a great WR in another area of rnd 1 or even rnd 2.

So WHY on earth would we trade UP to get CJ?

Colston is currently leading the NFL in yards as a ROOKIE. Wanna guess where he went in the draft?

Point made.

Gut

First of all, your first post is excellent. We see that mindset tossed around all the time, even by so called "experts" and coaches. The forty yard dash means something. Otherwise, why would they do it? It's only a valuable metric for people who understand HOW to interpret it (ie how it translates to the field).

But... your logic, as it applies to CJ, is completely whack. So you're saying that WR's shouldn't be drafted in the top 5 simply because other teams (bad teams mind you) have made poor choices (mostly teams with a track record of bad choices... ie the worst 5 teams in the league). Furthermore, those receivers usually come into a situation where they are on a bad team with bad habits. Maybe this is the same reason why coaches try to keep highly drafted qb's off the field their first year? Maybe they fail because the worst 5 teams in the league usually draft by need more so than good teams. Who knows?

Point being, you have to evaluate the players and go by that alone, not what has happened in the past. CJ, at worst, will still be a large body that can go after the ball and rarely drops a pass. With proper coaching, he can be an excellent route runner (if you don't consider him to already be). IF he does end up to have good-great speed (anything sub 4.5 for someone his size I'd say), he could potentially be one of the top receivers in the game. Then there are intangibles like character (yea, we don't care about that) and work ethic. Both areas that the people on the inside say he excels in.

I don't see how you pass on a top tier WR with the only reason being that other teams have made bad choices in similar situations as you. Just make a good choice and none of that matters.

Gut

11-15-2006, 01:24 PM

Thanks for the compliment on my first post.

As for the second...

I'm not saying that Calvin Johnson isn't a great college WR...he is. However, I need to see numbers on him (like his 10 yd, 20 shuffle, 40 yd, ect) before I anoint him a can't miss top 5 pick. If he runs a sub 4.5 then he WILL be a top 5-7 pick depending on what juniors come out.

My point about production is two fold. First, we'll have a 2nd year QB who's not gonna put the ball up 30 times a game so our new rookie phenom WR will not make the desired impact of let's say 80 catches for 1000+ yds and 10 TD's. So even if you may a GREAT pick, the player is not likely to make the desired impact for a minimum of 2 years. That's not to say he won't help, but not enough as taking an equivalent player at a more important position.

Secondly, there has been a shocking number of top 10 WR's who aren't cutting it...not only as top 10 picks...but not even as decent starters. So until we see some numbers on him...he's a question mark. And even then, he might still be one considering the Charles Rogers of the draft.

To clarify...
Shawn Merriman nearly singlehandidly turned the SD D into a powerhouse. Calvin Johnson CAN'T do that for our offense...the positions are not equivalent.

This is why I suggest we find a dominant pass rusher. Now here's where the Titans need to make a tough call...

If you draft a dominant pass rusher, there is no guarantee he'll be a dominant pass rusher in the NFL. However, if you do get one, he's cheaper than signing a dominant free agent (who commands one of the top 4 salaries by position). The good thing about signing the free agent stud is that you KNOW what you're getting. So do you overspend to get the sure thing or gamble a bit more for a cheaper/younger alternative. That can only be answered in part by what's available in free agency and who comes out in the draft.

But this is the year the Titans need to make some big moves...both in the draft and in free agency.

Gut

First of all, your first post is excellent. We see that mindset tossed around all the time, even by so called "experts" and coaches. The forty yard dash means something. Otherwise, why would they do it? It's only a valuable metric for people who understand HOW to interpret it (ie how it translates to the field).

But... your logic, as it applies to CJ, is completely whack. So you're saying that WR's shouldn't be drafted in the top 5 simply because other teams (bad teams mind you) have made poor choices (mostly teams with a track record of bad choices... ie the worst 5 teams in the league). Furthermore, those receivers usually come into a situation where they are on a bad team with bad habits. Maybe this is the same reason why coaches try to keep highly drafted qb's off the field their first year? Maybe they fail because the worst 5 teams in the league usually draft by need more so than good teams. Who knows?

Point being, you have to evaluate the players and go by that alone, not what has happened in the past. CJ, at worst, will still be a large body that can go after the ball and rarely drops a pass. With proper coaching, he can be an excellent route runner (if you don't consider him to already be). IF he does end up to have good-great speed (anything sub 4.5 for someone his size I'd say), he could potentially be one of the top receivers in the game. Then there are intangibles like character (yea, we don't care about that) and work ethic. Both areas that the people on the inside say he excels in.

I don't see how you pass on a top tier WR with the only reason being that other teams have made bad choices in similar situations as you. Just make a good choice and none of that matters.

bigtitan53279

11-15-2006, 01:49 PM

dont compare him to charles rogers. rogers failed a drug test before the draft then was suspended for four games last year for failing another one. add that to the amount of collarbone injuries he suffered and you have bust written all over him.

there wasnt anything wrong with rogers' physical ability. he couldnt control the injuries, but he brought things upon himself with the drugs. CJ is a good kid, hard worker and a good teammate.

two completely different animals.

DeutschTitan

11-15-2006, 02:51 PM

titansfan9

11-15-2006, 05:03 PM

titansfan9

11-15-2006, 05:13 PM

most guys drafted in the top five get by on their unbelievale athletic abiliy and are not refined in their route running ability or their understanding of the offense they play in. that gets you by in college, it wont in the nfl. i think ted ginn falls in that category.

calvin runs very good routes and has the best hands in college. he also has the uncoachable things like good speed(not fantastic speed) and great jumping ability. he also has extremely good concentration on the ball.

calvin has the intangibles to be a great WR, when a lot of the guy drafted in the top five are fantastic athletes playing football instead of fantastic football players.

I agree, he reminds me of Larry Fitzgerald a lot, and Fitzgerald reminded people of Jerry Rice- Jerry Rice ran a 4.6, but he did every thing else great, and if a WR has perfect route running over 4.2 40, a corner has more trouble with the route running- just the facts-

Calvin Johnson:

BEST CASE SCENERIO: A bigger, faster Jerry Rice

MID CASE SCENERIO: Keyshawn Johnson

WORST CASE SCENERIO: Plaxico Burress

LIKELY CASE SCENERIO: Larry Fitzgerald

OTHER COMPARISON: Terrell Owens

titansfan9

11-15-2006, 05:18 PM

Titans2004

11-17-2006, 12:19 AM

Gut your example about comparing guys taken top ten to guys taken later can be said of just about any position. Historically LT and QB have a lower bust rate than most other positions when drafted in the top 10. Fortunately we don't need either of those positions. So we have to look at who is BPA, who has the least likelyhood of busting given his college performance, off-field issues, and pre-draft workouts. I also think you have to consider longevity in your choice because WRs tend to have longer careers then RBs and so if my choice is between Peterson and Johnson with all else being equal then I go Johnson.

Their is no arguing that the Titans don't have a #1WR. Their also will not be a #1WR available via FA this yr. So if we want to give ourselves the best chance at acquiring a #1 WR to be Vince's go to guy then it is going to have to come via the draft or a trade.

Another point you mentioned peaked my interest and that was concerning Mike Williams. The guy is obviously done in Detroit. So I'm sure we could trade for him if we wanted. Do you think that Chow could find a way to motivate him and put him to use. At least MW catches the ball which Troupe seems to find difficult.

Gut

11-17-2006, 11:04 AM

One thing I'd like explained to me is this nonsense of CJ not going to produce because Vince can't throw accurately or throw period(which is bullhockey). Who is throwing the ball to CJ right now? Reggie Ball...and you think he's better than Vince? I've seen way to many highlight reels of CJ catches where he's had to grab behind him or adjust drastically to the ball. So are you telling me Reggie Ball is a better QB than Vince? Please....if anything I just made a strong case for CJ to be drafted, regardless of 40 time, cone shuffle, locamotive out running, whatever those rediculous drills are.

The shotgun approach to arguing is not effective...so we'll address your points.

First, let's assume CJ is the next Larry Fitzgerald AND he can duplicate what Fitz did in his best year...

103 receptions for 1409 yds and 10 TD's. Great, right?

BUT...that is based on throwing the ball 42 times a game (on average). We won't do that. In fact, Vince Young is avg'ing about 23 ATTEMPTS per game. This means already CJ's production would be nearly HALF or what Fitzgerald's numbers would be...so we'd be looking at maybe 55 catches for 775 yards and maybe 6 TD's. Of course, you could then make the argument that WITH CJ, we'd throw more. I'd disagree because that is not how Fisher builds teams and not how most successful young teams are built. Usually you develop the D and running game while your rookie QB learns so he doesn't have to carry the whole load. This is how you get to win a Super Bowl with a young Ben Roethlisberger. Coaches also do it this way to LIMIT INT's from inexperienced QB's. The more we throw it, the more INT's VY will throw and turnovers have a more direct correlation to winning and losing than passing TD's.

But let's say you're right and they let Vince throw it 30 times a game instead of 23. Even then his production would only be 75% (say 76 catches for 1000 yards and 7 TD's). Sounding better...BUT...Vince didn't complete 63% of his passes like the Cards did. He's completing less than 50% right now. That's a 13% drop. Assuming VY improves significantly next season and can complete 55% of his passes, that's still about an 8% drop in completions (and stats).

That leaves us with 70 catches for 920 yds and 6 td's. Is this what you'd be happy with from a top 5 pick at WR? And keep in mind, this is just about best case scenario short of VY turning into Peyton Manning throwing the ball and Chow becoming Mike Martz in calling passing plays. There is also the very real possibility that CJ doesn't produce on the level of Larry Fitzgerald's BEST year, VY may not make as much improvement in his completion percentage and we're unlikely to reach 30 passing attempts a game in VY's second season. So I'd expect the above numbers to be even LOWER.

While the numbers would increase over time as VY develops into a good passer, we'd be spending a ton of money for the above production during CJ's first couple of seasons. That money can be better spent on a position that will have a greater impact over the next 2 years...then we can draft a big time WR when VY is ready for a breakout season.

So if CJ is heads and tails above everyone else we can take and there is no great pass rushing DE or other position of need, then yes, we probably should take him, but his results will be less than expected by most people.

As for your other 'points'....

No, I don't think Reggie Ball is as good as VY. Is Reggie Ball playing against NFL caliber defenses? Is CJ?

A WR who can adjust to a poorly thrown ball doesn't gurantee you'll make it on an NFL roster nor does it gurantee stardom. Mike Williams made spectacular catch after spectacular catch. How's his NFL career so far?

Every year there are GREAT college WR's who can't make it in the NFL....the first reason is lack of speed. Name me one WR playing in the NFL who runs only 4.8? There are NONE. Speed is an important factor. Not the only one, but it's important...especially at WR/CB.

and please! stop bringing up Colston. Okay, we get it..he was drafted in the 7th rnd and is doing great. But that's rare you find talent like that beyond the first two rounds. I mean, we drafted 3 WR's in rnds 3 and 4 respectively in 2005 and what have they done? Only one has somewhat impressed and thats BJones and he still hasn't done much or stayed healthy for that matter.

Where was Derrick Mason drafted? Where was Wayne Chrebet drafted (same college as Colston)? Where was Laveranus Coles drafted? How about Mike Furrey? There are plenty of example of productive to excellent WR's taken outside of the 2nd rnd. And frankly, Bennett is a good #2 WR and where was he drafted? These guys aren't gonna be Randy Moss as rookies, but who is? And there are NUMEROUS examples of 'top' wr's that bust big in the first rnd...more recently.

And for the limited production we'd get out of a CJ right now, we'd be better off finding a dominant pass rusher (if there is one) or trading down to get more high quality draft picks so perhaps we could get a dominant S AND the best OG in the draft. I'd rather have a dominant DE, OG, FS or CB (if we fire schwartz and go mostly man coverage) before grabbing CJ. That could change if his workouts are unbelieveable (and we'll just have to deal with less production in the short term to insure we have his talent when VY blossoms in a few of years), but that's the rationale behind the statement.

Greg

Gut

11-17-2006, 11:13 AM

Calvin Johnson:

BEST CASE SCENERIO: A bigger, faster Jerry Rice

MID CASE SCENERIO: Keyshawn Johnson

WORST CASE SCENERIO: Plaxico Burress

LIKELY CASE SCENERIO: Larry Fitzgerald

OTHER COMPARISON: Terrell Owens

First off, we don't know what CJ runs so we don't know if he'll be faster than 4.6 or not. Most draftniks guesstimate that he has 4.50-4.55 speed. This is a guesstimate...certainly not fact and we'll find out on his pro day. Til then, it's pointless to compare him to guys who ran in the 4.3's or 4.4's.

Everyone WR's upside is a faster Jerry Rice. Funny how no one comes close. Probably because no WR's have that combo of Hall of Fame HC, new innovative offensive passing attack, excellent OL, 2 Hall of Fame QB's throwing him the ball and a great WR to play opposite him. Add in Jerry Rice's awesome talent and you have the greatest WR to play.

More realistically, CJ's upside is probably that of Larry Fitzgerald (if he's that fast). But are you getting a Larry Fitzgerald or a Mike Williams or a Charles Rogers?

Gut

Gut

11-17-2006, 11:18 AM

Everyone is inconsistent to a point. Even the great CJ was held to almost no yards in one of his games and he wasn't exactly playing against the Patriots D.

But you're right, there doesn't appear to be a dominant pass rusher at the moment. Much will be revealed at the combine, based on who is in the draft, colle all star games, and the Senior Bowl as well as Pro Day workouts. I personally like the Senior Bowl and Senior Bowl week cause you get to see the top seniors practice and play against each other.

While Merriman was considered a top DE prospect, he was a bit inconsistent in college too and NO ONE projected him to be one of the best defensive players in the game. Sometimes, the potential shines. Look at Kearse (in his first couple of years...not now).

Gut

but there is no dominat DE in this draft, there is Gaines Adams who has some Shawn Merriman like qualities, but he is very inconsistant- and will probably be drafted in top 5 because of his potential...

TitanJeff

11-17-2006, 11:23 AM

Gut

11-17-2006, 11:27 AM

Well, you also need to consider the money involved. Busting QB's take a bigger bite out of your salary cap.

But OL are usually the safest picks for several reasons. If a dominant college LT can't play LT in the pros, maybe he can still dominate at RT. Or move him inside to LG...then RG...then OC. You have multiple opportunities to still get (at worst) a productive player. If a top 5 QB busts...it's bye bye.

But be that as it may, I don't like taking RB's in the first rnd UNLESS they are a Marshall Faulk or LT. I might take a Larry Johnson around where he was taken...mid-late first, but that's about it because of the talent/production/longevity/difference in talent issues. It's a lot easier to find a productive RB almost anywhere in the draft if you have a great OL. However, if you have a great RB, he may not be great behind a BAD OL. Just look at the Edge!

And since we have LenDale White and should keep either Henry or Brown (unless we sign a better RB in free agency), I wouldn't take another one in the top 3 rnds.

I agree that our best chance of aquiring a #1 WR for next year is through the draft, but my argument is that we don't need a true #1 WR yet. Not when our defense is LAST and our OL can't consistenly open holes for the running game....the two BIGGEST factors in taking pressure off a rookie QB. We need to build up our D and OL first - all things being equal. However, if CJ is hands down the best player on the board, I would consider trading down (equal value) to get 2 picks to fix holes...or take CJ if I couldn't get equal value.

Gut

Gut your example about comparing guys taken top ten to guys taken later can be said of just about any position. Historically LT and QB have a lower bust rate than most other positions when drafted in the top 10. Fortunately we don't need either of those positions. So we have to look at who is BPA, who has the least likelyhood of busting given his college performance, off-field issues, and pre-draft workouts. I also think you have to consider longevity in your choice because WRs tend to have longer careers then RBs and so if my choice is between Peterson and Johnson with all else being equal then I go Johnson.

Their is no arguing that the Titans don't have a #1WR. Their also will not be a #1WR available via FA this yr. So if we want to give ourselves the best chance at acquiring a #1 WR to be Vince's go to guy then it is going to have to come via the draft or a trade.

Another point you mentioned peaked my interest and that was concerning Mike Williams. The guy is obviously done in Detroit. So I'm sure we could trade for him if we wanted. Do you think that Chow could find a way to motivate him and put him to use. At least MW catches the ball which Troupe seems to find difficult.

Gut

11-17-2006, 11:35 AM

One thing to think about is what impact a top WR has when he isn't catching the football. Would he stretch the field giving more opportunities to other receivers and the running game? Would he command a double-team which also impacts other receivers and the running game.

I'm not on the CJ bandwagon. I won't begin to look at the draft until February. But there is much more to the value of a top WR than receiving yards.

Good points...but...

This is something to look at when you have balance or if CJ had deep speed. If he only runs a 4.5, you won't find too many teams feeling like they need to double him unless he shows he can kill them. But even if they rotate their coverage that way instead of to Bennett's side, that won't help the run game block the DT they can't move out of the hole. However, if you have a dominant running game and the D needs 8 guys to stop it, NOW you put the D in a serious bind cause you can't double it's difficult to double an outside WR with a FS playing down the middle. Shift the safety to CJ's side for instance and the other half of the filed has no deep help. This is when it makes a huge difference.

It is also possible that he becomes the main go to guy and that it could drastically improve our 3rd down conversion percentage.

It's also possible he busts. We'll be able to make a better guesstimate after he works out and we see how fast he really is (and big).

Gut

Titantonic

11-17-2006, 01:14 PM

The shotgun approach to arguing is not effective...so we'll address your points.

First, let's assume CJ is the next Larry Fitzgerald AND he can duplicate what Fitz did in his best year...

103 receptions for 1409 yds and 10 TD's. Great, right?

BUT...that is based on throwing the ball 42 times a game (on average). We won't do that. In fact, Vince Young is avg'ing about 23 ATTEMPTS per game. This means already CJ's production would be nearly HALF or what Fitzgerald's numbers would be...so we'd be looking at maybe 55 catches for 775 yards and maybe 6 TD's. Of course, you could then make the argument that WITH CJ, we'd throw more. I'd disagree because that is not how Fisher builds teams and not how most successful young teams are built. Usually you develop the D and running game while your rookie QB learns so he doesn't have to carry the whole load. This is how you get to win a Super Bowl with a young Ben Roethlisberger. Coaches also do it this way to LIMIT INT's from inexperienced QB's. The more we throw it, the more INT's VY will throw and turnovers have a more direct correlation to winning and losing than passing TD's.

But let's say you're right and they let Vince throw it 30 times a game instead of 23. Even then his production would only be 75% (say 76 catches for 1000 yards and 7 TD's). Sounding better...BUT...Vince didn't complete 63% of his passes like the Cards did. He's completing less than 50% right now. That's a 13% drop. Assuming VY improves significantly next season and can complete 55% of his passes, that's still about an 8% drop in completions (and stats).

That leaves us with 70 catches for 920 yds and 6 td's. Is this what you'd be happy with from a top 5 pick at WR? And keep in mind, this is just about best case scenario short of VY turning into Peyton Manning throwing the ball and Chow becoming Mike Martz in calling passing plays. There is also the very real possibility that CJ doesn't produce on the level of Larry Fitzgerald's BEST year, VY may not make as much improvement in his completion percentage and we're unlikely to reach 30 passing attempts a game in VY's second season. So I'd expect the above numbers to be even LOWER.

While the numbers would increase over time as VY develops into a good passer, we'd be spending a ton of money for the above production during CJ's first couple of seasons. That money can be better spent on a position that will have a greater impact over the next 2 years...then we can draft a big time WR when VY is ready for a breakout season.

So if CJ is heads and tails above everyone else we can take and there is no great pass rushing DE or other position of need, then yes, we probably should take him, but his results will be less than expected by most people.

As for your other 'points'....

No, I don't think Reggie Ball is as good as VY. Is Reggie Ball playing against NFL caliber defenses? Is CJ?

A WR who can adjust to a poorly thrown ball doesn't gurantee you'll make it on an NFL roster nor does it gurantee stardom. Mike Williams made spectacular catch after spectacular catch. How's his NFL career so far?

Every year there are GREAT college WR's who can't make it in the NFL....the first reason is lack of speed. Name me one WR playing in the NFL who runs only 4.8? There are NONE. Speed is an important factor. Not the only one, but it's important...especially at WR/CB.

Where was Derrick Mason drafted? Where was Wayne Chrebet drafted (same college as Colston)? Where was Laveranus Coles drafted? How about Mike Furrey? There are plenty of example of productive to excellent WR's taken outside of the 2nd rnd. And frankly, Bennett is a good #2 WR and where was he drafted? These guys aren't gonna be Randy Moss as rookies, but who is? And there are NUMEROUS examples of 'top' wr's that bust big in the first rnd...more recently.

And for the limited production we'd get out of a CJ right now, we'd be better off finding a dominant pass rusher (if there is one) or trading down to get more high quality draft picks so perhaps we could get a dominant S AND the best OG in the draft. I'd rather have a dominant DE, OG, FS or CB (if we fire schwartz and go mostly man coverage) before grabbing CJ. That could change if his workouts are unbelieveable (and we'll just have to deal with less production in the short term to insure we have his talent when VY blossoms in a few of years), but that's the rationale behind the statement.

Greg
Gut landed the haymaker here. Time for your corner men to throw in the towel before any more damage is done. This fight's over....:yes:

DeutschTitan

11-17-2006, 01:21 PM

Banshee2

11-17-2006, 03:26 PM

Manningham from Mich is one, too...I'm for drafting guys from winning programs. As for what positition to draft in Round 1, I'm not quite sure there yet, but I DO agree with Gut - gotta build the D first. That's the way Reese builds Fish's teams. (note from that what you will)

Titans2008

11-17-2006, 04:18 PM

Gut

11-17-2006, 04:31 PM

I understand where your coming from Gut, but my point on Colston is nothing is guarunteed in the draft. You gave plenty of examples of later round guys, but its not a sure shot your going to get guys like that. Look at Jonathan Orr, he was drafted ahead of Colston, by us, in the 6th round. He hasn't even been active for a game. Plus those guys you listed were solid, not game breakers.

The difference is that you don't lose that much if a 6th rnd WR doesn't make it. You lose a TON if your top 5 pick WR doesn't excel, let alone make it. You NEED good production from a first rnd pick...even more so when that player is a top 5 pick.

As for the guys I mentioned, Chrebet and Mason have been Pro Bowlers and I expect Colston to be this year. Not exactly chump change!

Also for every Colston, theres a Shifino, Hill and Berlin. You can also make a case for first rounders who have busted, but I havn't seen much of a problem with first round recievers taken previously. Also, Mike Williams was out of football for a season, is immature and overall a poor example to use. Comparing him and CJ is apples to oranges, IMO.

Yes, for every Colston there are several Chifino's, Hill's and Berlin's. But they are NOT projected to be impact players...merely backups...which is generally the role they play. Top 5 picks are supposed to become perennial Pro Bowlers. That's a huge difference.

Mike Williams is a perfect example because he too made many spectacular catches in college, is about the same size (huge) and is not known for his speed. There are a zillion successful NFL players who are immature. That is not a valid excuse unless the guy is involved in drugs or breaking the law repeatedly. Pacman for example seems to WANT to go to jail but for the most part, he plays pretty well. Plus, there are many other first rnd WR picks that bust. A simple look back over the drafts will tell you that many of the WR's taken in the first rnd are not playing at a pro bowl level...some are not even playing.

I'm all for drafting defense and OL help, but why do that when we can get a bulk of that through Free Agency with all that money we have? There is no dominating DE in this draft. You could make a case for Adams, but he's more than likely going to be taken by someone who runs a 3-4 and be transformed into a Merrimon LB.

Why draft D and OL when you can get that in the draft? Because pass rushing DE's get paid about the 3rd most amount of money in free agency per position AND you'll have to overpay IN free agency to get one. Same with OL....you can get a marginal upgrade, but you'd be paying a pretty penny to do so. There is more bang for your buck in the draft at OL. I agree there is no clear cut dominant pass rusher right now, but Adams is not too small. Kearse played much of his first season at about 255lbs and was dominant. How big is Jason Taylor, Dwight Freeney, Robert Mathis? If he can play, we want him. I agree that DE MIGHT be a position to grab in free agency if there is no clear cut dominant pass rusher AND a dominant vet becomes available without breaking the bank.

However, you don't take Guards and Centers where we'll be picking. Your point about OLinemen is sound, but honestly any time you have to teach an old dog new tricks, your investment wasn't that great. That means the person you got for the position isn't capable there, but while you fill one hole, you still have another. We could possibly move down and draft someone like Michael Griffin or Laron Landry, though.

Yes, the point was that would you rather have CJ and his above production at #5 and let's say a good OG with our second rnd pick OR trade down to #10 and get another 3rd giving us the ammo to move up to get 2 2nd rnd picks. Then take a Landry, the best OG in the draft and a good CB. While it isn't a sexy pick, a serious upgrade at OG, FS, and CB would do a lot more
towards improving the wins/losses than CJ and one of the others. Is CJ gonna take our offense from about 30th to where we can score 28 points per game (which is what we need to avg winning our games by ONE point)?

I've already shown under a best case scenario that won't happen. The D needs HELP.

[quote]
Right now, at this point and time, CJ is the pick for us. He's got character, no personal issues, has a good background, production and fills a need. Jeff also made a great point on how someone like CJ could open up holes for us in the running game and passing game. What CJ offers us is huge and outweighs other options.QUOTE]

I think I've well demonstrated that CJ will not bring us the production over the next 2 years that people will expect and that if our D doesn't seriously improve, the W/L record won't seriously improve. So how can you say he's the pick for us? And CLEARLY a dominant pass rusher/DB or FS/OG/CB would be superior picks for this team over CJ/OG(or DB).

Gut

Gut

11-17-2006, 04:35 PM

Look, CJ is dominating against all odds. CJ is the kind of player that you want on your team. He's worth a top 5 pick unless he proves otherwise at the combine. Has anyone ever seen CJ drop the ball? I haven't. Game over.

Dominant vs college does not make you dominant vs the NFL. CJ IS the kind of player I want on this team as long as his speed checks out.

I never said CJ isn't a good player. I said we need to see his speed before you annoint him the next Jerry Rice ('with better speed').

The main point is, with a developing rookie QB, he won't have the bang for our buck we can get with other picks/trade down options. See posts above.

How many times has CJ gone up for a ball and been creamed by an NFL FS? Lots of guys have good hands in college. Sometimes that changes when they play in the pros. Sometimes it doesn't.

Gut

Pit Bull #53

11-17-2006, 04:37 PM

I disagree with the people that are saying that Gaines Adams has been inconsistent. I have watched the majority of Clemson's games this year, and he has been a very productive player. He went through a stretch this year where he had a sack in 8 consecutive games. They also play him in coverage and move him around a lot. If you just look how he is built, you can tell he has the frame to bulk up if needed. He has long arms and has the best first step in college. As long as he doesn't bomb his workouts, which he shouldn't because he's a great athlete, he's going to go top 5-6.

Bobo

11-17-2006, 05:45 PM

Gut

11-17-2006, 11:27 PM

Derrick Mason got lots of catches and yards with our heavy running O. Hines Ward has been able to catch 80+ balls and 1,000 + yards with the heavy running O of Pitt. Gut, I applaud your effort, but all that computing you did kind of reminds me of some footballoutsiders stats that always aren't very usefull.

If we got a guy like CJ and couldn't find a way to use him, then that's bad coaching. I'd hope Fish would push Chow to do things more like Dinger if we needed to get a weapon the ball more.

You are MISSING the POINT!

The reason the Steelers can get Hines Ward 80+ catches is BECAUSE THEY HAVE A DOMINANT RUN GAME!

We do NOT!

They force teams to bring up an 8th defender to stop the run which OPENS up the secondary for Ward and hurts a defense's ability to double him.

Defenses have no such problem with the Titans because they can control our running attack due to our hole(s) on the OL. As I mentioned before, having a strong D and a strong ground attack WOULD make a CJ much more effective for us. But since we have NEITHER, we need that first more than a 'great' WR.

Keep also in mind that it took McNair 3 or 4 years to hit a 60% completion percentage. My calculations are a VERY real possibility. Actually, it's more likely I OVERESTIMATED the potential numbers for CJ.

As I said, the reason you don't throw the ball 40 times with a rookie QB should be obvious!

Gut

TitanKid4Life

11-18-2006, 12:12 AM

I agree that our best chance of aquiring a #1 WR for next year is through the draft, but my argument is that we don't need a true #1 WR yet.
Gut
but if not this year when? CJ is the best WR to come in a long time, he has everything u could want in a top receiver maybe not the tedd ginn like speed but that is super super rare, and if we are going to get a #1 receiver it needs to be this guy

Bobo

11-18-2006, 12:38 AM

You are MISSING the POINT!

The reason the Steelers can get Hines Ward 80+ catches is BECAUSE THEY HAVE A DOMINANT RUN GAME!

We do NOT!

They force teams to bring up an 8th defender to stop the run which OPENS up the secondary for Ward and hurts a defense's ability to double him.

Defenses have no such problem with the Titans because they can control our running attack due to our hole(s) on the OL. As I mentioned before, having a strong D and a strong ground attack WOULD make a CJ much more effective for us. But since we have NEITHER, we need that first more than a 'great' WR.

Keep also in mind that it took McNair 3 or 4 years to hit a 60% completion percentage. My calculations are a VERY real possibility. Actually, it's more likely I OVERESTIMATED the potential numbers for CJ.

As I said, the reason you don't throw the ball 40 times with a rookie QB should be obvious!

Gut

Their run game really wasn't always dominant. Neither was ours of course. Yet still the #1 WR's got #1 numbers. So what's the point I'm missing?

We're #12 in rushing now, not bad at all.

I would rather have a great D than a great WR. The point here is who will be available for our likely pick, and who is worth it. If there's nobody on the D side of the ball that grades out close to CJ, then I wouldn't pass if we can't trade out. I may not even try to trade out.

An offense can help the D too.

Da Architek

11-18-2006, 03:09 AM

Nobody is addressing the need for a Center. Mawae has about another year left and we need an apprentice asap!

Gut

11-18-2006, 08:19 AM

but if not this year when? CJ is the best WR to come in a long time, he has everything u could want in a top receiver maybe not the tedd ginn like speed but that is super super rare, and if we are going to get a #1 receiver it needs to be this guy

What's a long time? A couple of years? Fitzgerald's only been in the league 3 years. Is CJ better than him?

Gut

Gut

11-18-2006, 08:37 AM

Their run game really wasn't always dominant. Neither was ours of course. Yet still the #1 WR's got #1 numbers. So what's the point I'm missing?

We're #12 in rushing now, not bad at all.

I would rather have a great D than a great WR. The point here is who will be available for our likely pick, and who is worth it. If there's nobody on the D side of the ball that grades out close to CJ, then I wouldn't pass if we can't trade out. I may not even try to trade out.

An offense can help the D too.

Really??? Outside of 2003, there rushing attack has been no worse than top 10 and a few years it's been first and top 5. I'd say that's pretty dominant!

Meanwhile, our 12th ranking is decieving because it includes about over 25 yards per game by Vince Young. Take out his rushing numbers (to compare him to other teams without a rushing QB) and we rank about 26th. Not bad at all?

A draft pick is a commodity. CJ won't help our team as much as certain combinations of players (in a trade down) or a dominant DE. However, if our available options (less dominant DE and not equal trade value in a trade down scenario) are not as good or better than taking CJ, then we SHOULD take him (and assuming his speed and measureables check out). But ideally, we'll be able to get a dominant pass rusher or a combination of defensive players or defensive and offensive players that will be more valueable than CJ.

You'll notice for the most part the best teams have strong running attacks and a strong defense. We have neither and CJ isn't going to help either that much...at least not with VY in only his 2nd year. Do you want VY throwing the ball 40 times a game?

BTW, he's currently avg'ing 1 INT in every 21 pass attempts.

Gut

GoT

11-18-2006, 08:55 AM

Bobo

11-18-2006, 01:27 PM

Really??? Outside of 2003, there rushing attack has been no worse than top 10 and a few years it's been first and top 5. I'd say that's pretty dominant!

Meanwhile, our 12th ranking is decieving because it includes about over 25 yards per game by Vince Young. Take out his rushing numbers (to compare him to other teams without a rushing QB) and we rank about 26th. Not bad at all?

A draft pick is a commodity. CJ won't help our team as much as certain combinations of players (in a trade down) or a dominant DE. However, if our available options (less dominant DE and not equal trade value in a trade down scenario) are not as good or better than taking CJ, then we SHOULD take him (and assuming his speed and measureables check out). But ideally, we'll be able to get a dominant pass rusher or a combination of defensive players or defensive and offensive players that will be more valueable than CJ.

You'll notice for the most part the best teams have strong running attacks and a strong defense. We have neither and CJ isn't going to help either that much...at least not with VY in only his 2nd year. Do you want VY throwing the ball 40 times a game?

BTW, he's currently avg'ing 1 INT in every 21 pass attempts.

Gut

I look at YPC too when talking about a teams rushing, not just total yards. They were average a few years at that, but their philosophy is to pound the ball, so they'll rack up the yards.

Were we dominant too when Mason was getting his yards and catches? No, but we stuck to our philosophy to pound the ball too....and we won a lot....and we had a true #1 with Pro Bowl numbers. Yes, we can run the ball and have a big time WR all on the same O.

I figured you'd bring up VY's yards. They do count, and I believe teams are respecting his ability to run. If you take away VY's yards, our YPC is still at mid pack. We started the year with a worse line, and we're missing our best blocking TE.

If you take away QB yards from all the teams above us in rushing yards, half the teams #'s would be hurt similarly to ours.

So no, when looking at the whole picture, I don't think our run game is bad. It's average to slightly above average. Even the stats bear that out.

If any DE that I'd watched looked like a better football player than CJ, I'd be all for him. Woodly and Adams have looked good to me, but not as good as CJ. It's still early, and things could change after it's all said and done. CJ may not even declare. And as usual, I'll probably see a nice trade down scenario....but the usual thing the last 2 years has been to wish for that, but not get it.

I know how strong D's are important, I want that again ABOVE anything else. But who has won the most recent SB's? Teams with good D's? Sure. But good run games? Most of them haven't had that.

I don't want VY throwing 40 times a game, and I think a decent run game will keep that from happening. He hasn't thrown near that much on average so far, even on a bad team.

I entirely expect VY to play better in his 2nd year, we all know rookies normally have lots of mistakes. If he has a true #1 WR, watch those #'s look a lot better.

Titans2004

11-18-2006, 03:40 PM

Gut- How much of our defensive woes are related to personnel as compared to scheme? I get sick of the idea that we have to have a defense full of top draft picks to be productive. It seems like we should be able to scheme better to hide our weaknesses. I'm not sold that just getting better players is going to make that much difference without a change in coaching philosophy.

You talk about the cost of getting a stud DE on the FA market, but the cost really isn't going to be that different from the price we pay a top 5 pick.

My main argument for CJ is that we need a playmaker for VY to mature with and their are no playmakers to be found in FA.

My philosophy on picking high in the draft is to always try to trade down, but if you can't then you have to take the guy that is least likely to be a total bust. And in my mind CJ is that right now.

Gut

11-18-2006, 07:06 PM

true, but take out his one bad game and it looks a lot better. 5 INTs in 139 throws for 1 pick per 28 attempts which is almost twice better than his teammate kerrycollins and his 1 INT every 15 quacking tosses.

I understand what you're saying, but these are his stats. He doesn't get to undo his worst stats nor do I get to take out the stats of his best game to make my point. They are what they are.

He'd still avg 1.5 INT's a game if he threw it 40 times at your rate.

Frankly, we'll have a better 'read' on his stats when the season's over when we'll have a bigger sample and see if he's progressing over his earlier games.

Gut

Gut

11-18-2006, 07:23 PM

I look at YPC too when talking about a teams rushing, not just total yards. They were average a few years at that, but their philosophy is to pound the ball, so they'll rack up the yards.

Are you defining good vs avg by YPC or total rush yds?

YPC is a 'fan' stat. A more important stat is carries or total yards. YPC doesn't take into account score. You could be losing a lot but have high YPC because a lot of the time you're rushing the ball the defense is playing back and playing the pass.

Were we dominant too when Mason was getting his yards and catches? No, but we stuck to our philosophy to pound the ball too....and we won a lot....and we had a true #1 with Pro Bowl numbers. Yes, we can run the ball and have a big time WR all on the same O.

Did anyone say you couldn't have a good running game and a #1 WR? We were a dominant running team when Eddie was in his prime and Mason was a slot WR getting 15 catches a year. The evolution occured in our Super Bowl year. But did we take Mason in the top 5 or in the 5th round?

I figured you'd bring up VY's yards. They do count, and I believe teams are respecting his ability to run. If you take away VY's yards, our YPC is still at mid pack. We started the year with a worse line, and we're missing our best blocking TE.

If you take away QB yards from all the teams above us in rushing yards, half the teams #'s would be hurt similarly to ours.

This is simply NOT true. I didn't look through EVERY QB, but I looked at about 15-20 starting QB's and they avg from -yards to about 2-3 yds per game. I saw 2 QB's with about 6yd avg's. I'm sure Vick also has big numbers, but VY's 25+ yds per game avg drops us to approximately 25 or 26th in the league. Unless of course you're basing your numbers purely on YPC...in which case I've already explained how this doesn't account for score. This is even more misleading considering our very poor record.

So no, when looking at the whole picture, I don't think our run game is bad. It's average to slightly above average. Even the stats bear that out.

The only stat that bears this out is YPC. All other rushing stats point to us being very bad!

If any DE that I'd watched looked like a better football player than CJ, I'd be all for him. Woodly and Adams have looked good to me, but not as good as CJ. It's still early, and things could change after it's all said and done. CJ may not even declare. And as usual, I'll probably see a nice trade down scenario....but the usual thing the last 2 years has been to wish for that, but not get it.

I know how strong D's are important, I want that again ABOVE anything else. But who has won the most recent SB's? Teams with good D's? Sure. But good run games? Most of them haven't had that.

How many recent teams have won the Super Bowl without a good run game and a QB with less than 4 yrs experience? Do we have ANYWHERE near that level of D? If not, then we NEED a better run game cause VY isn't gonna turn into Peyton Manning next year.

I entirely expect VY to play better in his 2nd year, we all know rookies normally have lots of mistakes. If he has a true #1 WR, watch those #'s look a lot better.

Of course his numbers would be better with a #1 WR, but that IS NOT the point. The TEAM will be better with different players and that will translate into more wins....THAT is the point.

Gut

TitanKid4Life

11-18-2006, 08:11 PM

wow u have way too much time on ur hand if u can write all of that

Gunny

11-18-2006, 10:09 PM

wow u have way too much time on ur hand if u can write all of that

No it shows he has a clue and puts thought into what he writes.

TitanKid4Life

11-19-2006, 12:30 AM

i still think its too much time for all that thought

Gunny

11-19-2006, 12:32 AM

i still think its too much time for all that thought

I can see how it would give you a headache.

TitanKid4Life

11-19-2006, 12:39 AM

its alot to read too, but if hes a fast typer it wouldnt take that long, but knowing me i have to sit and think sometimes about things like that

Bobo

11-19-2006, 03:08 AM

Are you defining good vs avg by YPC or total rush yds?

YPC is a 'fan' stat. A more important stat is carries or total yards. YPC doesn't take into account score. You could be losing a lot but have high YPC because a lot of the time you're rushing the ball the defense is playing back and playing the pass.

Did anyone say you couldn't have a good running game and a #1 WR? We were a dominant running team when Eddie was in his prime and Mason was a slot WR getting 15 catches a year. The evolution occured in our Super Bowl year. But did we take Mason in the top 5 or in the 5th round?

This is simply NOT true. I didn't look through EVERY QB, but I looked at about 15-20 starting QB's and they avg from -yards to about 2-3 yds per game. I saw 2 QB's with about 6yd avg's. I'm sure Vick also has big numbers, but VY's 25+ yds per game avg drops us to approximately 25 or 26th in the league. Unless of course you're basing your numbers purely on YPC...in which case I've already explained how this doesn't account for score. This is even more misleading considering our very poor record.

The only stat that bears this out is YPC. All other rushing stats point to us being very bad!

How many recent teams have won the Super Bowl without a good run game and a QB with less than 4 yrs experience? Do we have ANYWHERE near that level of D? If not, then we NEED a better run game cause VY isn't gonna turn into Peyton Manning next year.

Of course his numbers would be better with a #1 WR, but that IS NOT the point. The TEAM will be better with different players and that will translate into more wins....THAT is the point.

Gut

I look at both total and YPC to determine a good run game. Maybe I'm just a lowly fan. I hear coaches, even our own, talking about YPC....so maybe it is more than just a fan stat.

Sure looked like you were saying we'd run a lot and therefor wouldn't throw a lot, and therefor wouldn't need a true #1. I gave you two examples that show that running a lot and having a #1 with big production can go hand in hand.

VY has 176 yards. Vick of course has a whole lot. Plummer has 92. Jax has 135. McNabb has 212. Alex Smith has 101. Yes, other teams above us would also be hurt if you took away their QB yards. But I don't see how you can totally discount what the QB gets in rush yards.

I don't see how anything points to us having a very bad rushing game. With TH in the lineup and the new o-line, who else sees a very bad run game?

1st you said a good team needs a strong D and running game. You can go to profootballreference.com and see teams that didn't have good run games yet went to the SB and/or won it. NE, PHI, TB, were not good, and several other teams were just average.

I don't expect to go to the SB next year. Maybe 2-4 years away. I hope VY to be similar to McNair during our run. I'd assume most of our young line will be intact, and I'd probably try to find another guy or two to groom. CJ would be well past the rookie learning curve. And of course as I've said before, we'd have to build the D too, but not being a good D is not all on the players. We don't have a great scheme, and a good O can help a D. Ours has in the past.

Gut

11-22-2006, 02:34 PM

I look at both total and YPC to determine a good run game. Maybe I'm just a lowly fan. I hear coaches, even our own, talking about YPC....so maybe it is more than just a fan stat.

Sure looked like you were saying we'd run a lot and therefor wouldn't throw a lot, and therefor wouldn't need a true #1. I gave you two examples that show that running a lot and having a #1 with big production can go hand in hand.

VY has 176 yards. Vick of course has a whole lot. Plummer has 92. Jax has 135. McNabb has 212. Alex Smith has 101. Yes, other teams above us would also be hurt if you took away their QB yards. But I don't see how you can totally discount what the QB gets in rush yards.

I don't see how anything points to us having a very bad rushing game. With TH in the lineup and the new o-line, who else sees a very bad run game?

1st you said a good team needs a strong D and running game. You can go to profootballreference.com and see teams that didn't have good run games yet went to the SB and/or won it. NE, PHI, TB, were not good, and several other teams were just average.

I don't expect to go to the SB next year. Maybe 2-4 years away. I hope VY to be similar to McNair during our run. I'd assume most of our young line will be intact, and I'd probably try to find another guy or two to groom. CJ would be well past the rookie learning curve. And of course as I've said before, we'd have to build the D too, but not being a good D is not all on the players. We don't have a great scheme, and a good O can help a D. Ours has in the past.

First, YPC is not a completely useless stat, but I gave you the most meaningful stat already. If you take out VY's rushing numbers, we're about 25th in the league in rushing. How do you 'write that off?'

You can't compare total rushing yards of QB's to VY since he's had fewer starts so his avg is higher per start. You need to subtract his avg yds per game from the team's total. If you do that with a guy like Plummer...who maybe has 92 in 10 games...that's a 9.2 yd avg. While that is a chunk, it is nowhere near as big as VY's 201yds in 7 starts. That's just about 29yards per game. Subtract that from our rushing yds per game and you'll see we're about 25th or 26th. BTW, McNabb has rushed for 212yds in 10 games for a 21.2 avg yds per game. The rushing difference between our 2 teams is 4 yards per game. But when you subtract out the QB's, they go from rushing less yards per game to more than us. Vick has rushed for about 700 yards in 10 games or a 70 yard avg per game. Subtract that out and they go from #1 rushing team to about top 3rd...but they're still pretty good. AND, they don't drop below us. Again, we end up about 25th....no if's and's or but's.

As for you showing me a strong run game with a #1 WR WITH big production...my argument is that our #1 WR WON'T get big production without VY throwing the ball nearly twice as much. I've already laid the numbers out showing you that in a best case scenario, we won't get BIG TIME production out of a #1 WR next year...even WITH VY throwing it more, a CJ being what we think he is, and VY improving significantly. I see no argument to dispute this.

Good young teams are built to run the ball and have a strong D. Why? So you don't have to rely on the offense scoring a lot, you can keep the score close which gives you a chance to win in the end. You also limit turnovers (a huge stat in terms of winning and losing) and control the clock (also very important in terms of winning and losing). This is how Fisher developed the first generation of Ten Titans into a dominant football team.

Yes, there are teams that have gotten to the Super Bowl with mediocre run games and even suspect defenses, but I'm interested in WINNING a Superbowl, not just getting there. Been there, done that.

As for the teams you mentioned, the Eagles lost even though they had a stellar D, the Pats have a Hall of Fame QB and a GREAT defense (and coaching), a TB had a great D, a very experienced QB but the largest coaching advantage we've ever seen. Notice that these teams didn't win with an avg D, avg run game and a very young QB. In fact, the Steelers are our best example for how to win the Super Bowl with a very young QB.

Their recipe...
Strong run game, stellar D, very good OL, strong RB, #1 WR, good young franchise QB.

Our ingredients...
Weak run game, bad defense, avg OL, strong RB, #2 WR, good young franchise QB.

If you take ther #1 WR now, you'll score more points, pay handsomely for less than stellar production from your #1 WR (since we DON'T want VY throwing the ball 40 times a game), but still lose a lot of games. As we've seen, VY...even with only #2 type WR's can march us down the field in crunch time for a game-winning score. What we need is to build up the OL and the defense and THEN add the offensive player. Building up the D and run game get us more wins overnight. It's more cost effective and a better strategy all things being equal.

As far as the D, I dislike our scheme and REALLY dislike our DC. We will NEVER get to the Super Bowl with Schwartz. He simply can't coach. I think we have a lot more talent on D than we're getting production wise, but we still need a dominant pass rusher no matter how you slice it.

Gut

Bobo

11-22-2006, 05:24 PM

Gut, you're really splitting hairs here, and you've got some fuzzy math. We're #19 w/o VY stats, not 25th. And just from a glance, we'd be higher than a few teams if you take out their QB yards, and within a few yards of many teams near the middle.

It may not mean much to you, but if you take out VY's yards, our ypc is top 10.

You still haven't said anything about the fact that the changed line is better and Henry in place of Brown is better. Those 1st few games with a different lineup probably hurt our stats....just like using VY's rushing stats added on to our total.

I still don't see a very bad rushing game. That by using stats, my eyes, and the facts of our lineup changes.

As far as the #1 wr not getting the ball enough, there's no way to know that....on top of me not being able to make much sense of your calculations. We'll try to run the ball and control the clock. We've done that before, not had a very high # of passes, and had a Pro Bowl type #1 WR.

Of course VY has to improve his passing, and that's something we have to assume will happen. And again, a guy that you can almost just throw the ball up to and he'll get it, like CJ, will make VY look a whole lot better. He's not throwing to a very good group now.

Good teams are built to run the ball? Like the Pats? Tampa Bay? They did win it all with avg run games.

Balty, Indy, and Chi have very average (to below average) run games this year, and are among the best teams. The D is most important, but running the ball is not as important. But as I've already said, I think this is a good run game....certainly good enough to be compared to NE and TB. It looks better to me, w/ or w/o adding VY's yards.

My only concern is that I want to see this steady pace of the run game for the rest of the year. I think it's doubtful that the run game will go to ****. If it does, then I'll worry.

I do think we need more D peices, but I still fail to see how that applies to CJ. I don't just take defensive player just because I want to build the D before the O. If CJ is a better player than any D guy we can get, we should take him if we don't get great trade down offers.

If another Juius Peppers was coming out, I'd take him over CJ even if both players were rated equally and we needed both a #1 WR and a great pass rusher. But I don't see that player.

wplatham

11-23-2006, 12:13 AM

Just one question.......What has hurt us more this year?

Not having a great receiver when our QB is completing 47% of his passes?

Or the opposing team's QB dropping back, standing in the pocket for 5 - 10 seconds and then throwing it over Lamont's head?

I'd love for us to address D in FA, but so far I don't know of any great DE or S that'll be FAs. I think if CJ is better than the best DE or S, take him. But if they're graded even, we've gotta go defense. I've only got one number to back that up. Our defensive ranking, 32.

As for O-line, we need to bring in guys to train for the future, but the line we have now has played well, and they should be alright for next year. We can take care of O-line in the late 2nd, 3rd, or 4th.

Are there no any receivers other than CJ? What about Jarrett or Steve Smith from USC. (How could you go wrong with Steve Smith lol). Ted Ginn is one. Or later on Jarrett Hicks from Texas Tech. Just something to think about.

Dang, we're starting this stuff early.

Bobo

11-23-2006, 11:41 AM

Johnny Lee Higgins is a semi-sleeper to watch for. I believe he leads the Div 1 in receiving. Not very big, but supposed to be very fast with good hands. Hope that's true, because good hands is something that should be high priority (no more Ty Cals).

TWR#1

11-24-2006, 02:10 AM

DE
1-Gaines Adams-Clemson
2-LaMarr Woodley-Michigan
3-Victor Abiamiri-Notre Dame
4-Ray McDonald-Florida
5-Quentin Moses-Georgia(way too inconsistent)

DT
1-Alan Branch-Michigan
2-DeMarcus"Tank" Tyler-NC State
3-Frank Okam-Texas
4-Amobi Okoye-Louisville
5-Quinn Pit****-OSU

CB
1-Marcus McCauley-Fresno St.
2-Leon Hall-Michigan
3-Darell Revis-Pittsburgh
4-Daymeion Hughes-California
5-Antoine Cason-Arizona

S
1-LaRon Landry-LSU
2-Michael Griffin-Texas
3-Reggie Nelson-Florida
4-Brandon Merriweather-Miami(Fl)
5a-Eric Weddle-Utah
5b-Tom Zbikowski-Notre Dame

RT(Both...OT)
1-Joe Thomas-Wisconsin
2-Jake Long-Michigan
3-Levi Brown-Penn State
4-Sam Baker-USC
5-Joe Staley-Central Michigan

OG
1-Justin Blalock-Texas
2-Ben Grubbs-Auburn
3-Josh Beekman-Boston College
4-Tim Duckworth-Auburn
5-Samson Satele-Hawaii

Smart***Titan

11-24-2006, 10:23 AM

Hey, no gator love TWR#1? Marcus Thomas, despite his off field stuff has to be in the top 5 DT's. (Titans should probably stay away from an off the field stuff player however!) No way Reggie Nelson is only the #3 rated safety.

TWR#1

11-24-2006, 02:28 PM

why isnt Reggie Nelson the 3rd rated safety??

and Marcus Thomas has too many isues.....off-field,I know he is a great player,and all but i wont see him being drafted before any of those guys.

bigtitan53279

11-24-2006, 02:47 PM

why isnt Reggie Nelson the 3rd rated safety?
because he is the best one in college, that's why.

TWR#1

11-24-2006, 06:34 PM

PAtitansfan53

11-24-2006, 09:15 PM

I would love to see us snag a playmaking S like reggie nelson in round two and a stud DE in round one. Leon Hall doesn't deserve the #2 spot he got burned all day by ted ginn jr. he dropped several spots because of that to me anyway.

Not saying it's gonna happen but how good would our run D be if we drafted Alan Branch if he declares. Thats two 6'6 320+lbs dt's whos gunna run on us. Might be better than the Jags dt's if they both play to there massive potential. Then add a decent end opposite KVB.

Pit Bull #53

11-24-2006, 10:11 PM

Marcus McCauley...no way does he deserve the #1 corner spot. He's had a terrible year and isn't even currently starting. He started out as a potential top 5 pick, if he would have just played at a consistent level, but he's really bombed this year. Good thing for him that he is one heck of an athlete and will likely wow people at the combine workouts.

Also, if I would revise my rankings back on page 1, I would put Ben Grubbs as my #1 OG. The more I watch him, the more I like him. I think he's gonna be great at the next level because he's not just some fat slug road grater, he's pretty athletic and can move. I like Beekman as well, but the only thing that worries me is his lack of height...I wouldn't be surprised if he measures at 6'0 flat.

Da Architek

11-25-2006, 03:48 PM

Can anyone tell me what the market looks like for a center? We need a young stud to train now bc Mawae doesnt have too much longer

TWR#1

11-26-2006, 04:37 AM

We have Amano back there being groomed....the staff is really high on him,and he has played well at G,when filling in for injury....I think he is our future C.

Gut

11-27-2006, 12:59 PM

well i just thought he meant he wasnt worthy of the number 3 in the nation....but in all seriousness...He isnt the best one in the nation,and there is no way 3 safeties go in round 1 with all the top heavy talented positions like WR,RB,CB,and DE as well as OT.LaRon Landry has earned the 1st safety taken spot,and if he isnt than there is something wrong,because I've seen him play many times this year,and although his stats dont equal how much he has actually done to this point he is the true leader of the number 2 defense in the country...and has made his fair share of plays...I also think Griffin will go ahead of him because he is a better tackler,and can blitz better,and also is a more SS,FS type player,where as Reggie Nelson seems better suited as a FS at the next level.

I watched LSU, Texas and Florida's last game very closely. Based on those 3 games, I'd rank those 3 saefties...

Reggie Nelson
Laron Landry
Michael Griffith

Reason being, Nelson makes big plays, plays with a ton of energy, will pick off the ball or knock it down...or even more likely, knock you out. He was playing deep saefty most of the game so he wasn't asked for much run support, but he made sure tackles in the secondary and really laid the wood. He's also fast! I think my numbers of 4.4 speed are pretty much what I saw.

Landry played more in the box as a SS and showed his athleticism, but he also got blocked out of the play too often. He also doesn't appear to have Nelson's game speed.

Griffith was the most disappointing of the 3. Several times he took bad angles, missed tackles and flat out took himself out of the play. On occasion he attacked the ball carrier and sometimes laid a vicious hit, but one of those left the ball carrier still standing where as tackling the guy would have been better. Also, against a good running team like A n M, he got confused as to who had the ball too much. Also, he refused to go low against Lane (their big RB). Ross had a much better game.

We'll have to see how Nelson does in run support but he was better than the other 2 in coverage and in the secondary roaming center field (which is exactly where Lamont is a lot right now).

Gut

Gut

11-27-2006, 01:01 PM

Can anyone tell me what the market looks like for a center? We need a young stud to train now bc Mawae doesnt have too much longer

Considering Mawae, a former Pro Bowl C is starting for us, I don't see C as a NEED position to be filled. We have holes in several other areas such as OG, RDE, FS and CB before I'd worry about an OC.

Plus, we just signed Mawae this year, we WON'T sign another FA OC next year so don't even waste the brain power thinking about that. At most, we'd draft an OC or OG who could be groomed, but as mentioned above, we have bigger needs.

Gut

DeutschTitan

11-27-2006, 03:02 PM

I think interior OLine can be addressed in FA and Amano is our future at C, I believe. In the draft I think we should look for a FS, RDE or BPA with our first selection. If we don't re-sign Bennett, Dwayne Jarrett would be a nice replacement. We'll have to wait and see how the DE's finish the season and who ranks where after workouts/combine. Adams is quite the prospect and could be worth pulling the trigger on if we select in the middle of the pack area. As for safety, I'm not sure. Landry is interesting, although, he hasn't played too well this year.

TitanKid4Life

11-27-2006, 09:44 PM

WR, i havent seen much from the DE position this year, and we definately need a FS

Pit Bull #53

11-28-2006, 12:18 AM

theprizdfighter

11-28-2006, 12:33 AM

CB and FS would be my top two positions for us to target in the draft.

I'd address OL, DL through FA.

Gut

11-28-2006, 03:29 AM

I still don't understand why people are so down on Gaines Adams. Barring a major bomb at his workouts, the guy is a legit top 5 pick. He had 10.5 sacks, 14.5 tackles for loss, 10 more QB hurries, 6 passes defensed, and 2 forced fumbles this year. He also had an INT return for a TD, and directly forced 2 INT's in the South Carolina game, one by swatting a pass in the air, and another by hitting the QB as he threw.

He has the perfect frame to add more muscle if coaches think he need to. He has long arms and is 6'5. He has the best first step in college. The only downside is how he plays the run at the point of attack...but guess what. That's what you get when you want a pass rushing DE. He can bulk up a little and round out his game and become better at this aspect, but you can't teach some of the things he can do.

He is easily my #1 defensive player in the draft.

I re-watched the SC-Clemson game and here are my thoughts on Adams' performance....

The first thing that struck me was that I wasn't impressed with his burst. But during the course of the game, I saw it about 5 times. About 5 times the whole game he came like a bat out of %^$! But why only those times? Yes, they also moved him to an inside LB spot and blitzed him up the middle, but I'm talking edge rusher. I think his biggest problems are that he either has difficulty diagnosing plays (which is what I suspect) or he takes a lot of plays off and is happy to get close to the QB. I think it's the former though previous write ups of him state the latter. Even still, he clearly is a force to be wreckoned with as he overpowered and ran around there line, but translating what I saw to the NFL left me dubious of taking him in the top 5. He's more raw than I expected and his holding up against the run and/or diagnosing plays could be a big problem for him as a rookie.

Perhaps I'll be more impressed with him with more tape...

Gut

titansfan9

11-29-2006, 07:01 PM

The shotgun approach to arguing is not effective...so we'll address your points.

First, let's assume CJ is the next Larry Fitzgerald AND he can duplicate what Fitz did in his best year...

103 receptions for 1409 yds and 10 TD's. Great, right?

BUT...that is based on throwing the ball 42 times a game (on average). We won't do that. In fact, Vince Young is avg'ing about 23 ATTEMPTS per game. This means already CJ's production would be nearly HALF or what Fitzgerald's numbers would be...so we'd be looking at maybe 55 catches for 775 yards and maybe 6 TD's. Of course, you could then make the argument that WITH CJ, we'd throw more. I'd disagree because that is not how Fisher builds teams and not how most successful young teams are built. Usually you develop the D and running game while your rookie QB learns so he doesn't have to carry the whole load. This is how you get to win a Super Bowl with a young Ben Roethlisberger. Coaches also do it this way to LIMIT INT's from inexperienced QB's. The more we throw it, the more INT's VY will throw and turnovers have a more direct correlation to winning and losing than passing TD's.

But let's say you're right and they let Vince throw it 30 times a game instead of 23. Even then his production would only be 75% (say 76 catches for 1000 yards and 7 TD's). Sounding better...BUT...Vince didn't complete 63% of his passes like the Cards did. He's completing less than 50% right now. That's a 13% drop. Assuming VY improves significantly next season and can complete 55% of his passes, that's still about an 8% drop in completions (and stats).

That leaves us with 70 catches for 920 yds and 6 td's. Is this what you'd be happy with from a top 5 pick at WR? And keep in mind, this is just about best case scenario short of VY turning into Peyton Manning throwing the ball and Chow becoming Mike Martz in calling passing plays. There is also the very real possibility that CJ doesn't produce on the level of Larry Fitzgerald's BEST year, VY may not make as much improvement in his completion percentage and we're unlikely to reach 30 passing attempts a game in VY's second season. So I'd expect the above numbers to be even LOWER.

While the numbers would increase over time as VY develops into a good passer, we'd be spending a ton of money for the above production during CJ's first couple of seasons. That money can be better spent on a position that will have a greater impact over the next 2 years...then we can draft a big time WR when VY is ready for a breakout season.

So if CJ is heads and tails above everyone else we can take and there is no great pass rushing DE or other position of need, then yes, we probably should take him, but his results will be less than expected by most people.

As for your other 'points'....

No, I don't think Reggie Ball is as good as VY. Is Reggie Ball playing against NFL caliber defenses? Is CJ?

A WR who can adjust to a poorly thrown ball doesn't gurantee you'll make it on an NFL roster nor does it gurantee stardom. Mike Williams made spectacular catch after spectacular catch. How's his NFL career so far?

Every year there are GREAT college WR's who can't make it in the NFL....the first reason is lack of speed. Name me one WR playing in the NFL who runs only 4.8? There are NONE. Speed is an important factor. Not the only one, but it's important...especially at WR/CB.

Where was Derrick Mason drafted? Where was Wayne Chrebet drafted (same college as Colston)? Where was Laveranus Coles drafted? How about Mike Furrey? There are plenty of example of productive to excellent WR's taken outside of the 2nd rnd. And frankly, Bennett is a good #2 WR and where was he drafted? These guys aren't gonna be Randy Moss as rookies, but who is? And there are NUMEROUS examples of 'top' wr's that bust big in the first rnd...more recently.

And for the limited production we'd get out of a CJ right now, we'd be better off finding a dominant pass rusher (if there is one) or trading down to get more high quality draft picks so perhaps we could get a dominant S AND the best OG in the draft. I'd rather have a dominant DE, OG, FS or CB (if we fire schwartz and go mostly man coverage) before grabbing CJ. That could change if his workouts are unbelieveable (and we'll just have to deal with less production in the short term to insure we have his talent when VY blossoms in a few of years), but that's the rationale behind the statement.

Greg

my three points with CJ is that he spreads the defense which means opening the run for LenDale White, he can make make the great catch and not only that runs great routes and has a great work ethic and personality, and number three if we can get Young, White, and Johnson to mature together we have the next great trio on our hands...