Jake Locker led the NFL last season......................

Uh, duh, yes the BDR is measuring the bad decisions vs. the good decisions.

Throwing the ball while being tackled is rarely going to end like Peyton's throw against the Ravens. Then again, we don't need the BDR to evaluate Peyton. He's earned his right to make his throws, much like Joyner has earned his right to be recognized for researching for this metric.

Coaches like Gus Bradley in Jacksonville are starting to use these unique analytics to evaluate players, and on the surface right now it looks like it can provide great advantages in roster building. Much like Billy Beane orchestrated his money ball rosters, only without worrying about the money.

It's what has led the team to drafting Joeckel and helped them decide to move forward with Gabbert, if only for this year. We don't know how this decision will work out yet, but you really need to give QBs three years to know what you have anyways. I'm betting they will find a way to use Gabbert effectively this year, regardless of their win-loss record at the end.

 

I understand the intent, but given the scenario it just looks like a really bad play call. So many things could go wrong with that route that instantly set up the D for a TD.

 

So many things? An interception is the only thing. And this play should be easy to not throw interceptions on... Avoid man coverage, all your receivers are easy passes

 

Although I love to read this (Locker fan) I'm not sure how much stock I put into it.

 

This season will be the make or break season for locker. I'm very anxious to see if this guy can lead this team to the playoffs although I think it will be very difficult for us to make the playoffs this year.

 

What about a fumble? What about if the receiver gets pushed back a yard or two when there are only 5 yards between him and the goal line. Easy to not throw an int? Why did we do that then when we know our QB has trouble reading defenses.

I stand by the statement, this was a bad play call.

 

Ya....but they weren't mentioned

 

keep it simple for locker, minimize mistakes and move the chains and get points in the red zone. I don't care how you move the chains as long as they are moved down the field!

 

Your initial post implied that running those curls was automatically a good idea because they were fast developing routes. I attempted to point out that slants and outs would have been better routes to run in that situation.

 

My point was that it DOES NOT measure all bad decisions, just some specific ones that are VERY subjective - as I pointed out - which means they are relatively useless.

So teaching QB's to stand in there and deliver a good ball while a defender is bearing down on them is a bad thing? Sacks would go up 10 fold if everyone went into a fetal position and took the sack. But don't worry, it's better for the offense because your BDR improved...oh wait, having negative yardage plays is a bad thing! The key to making a good decision is to know when you can get it off and take the hit and when taking the hit is gonna greatly improve your chance at throwing a pick. This does neither. And btw, saying Peyton doesn't count because he's Peyton is a bad argument when I give you an example showing how this 'statistic' he's using is a bad measure. I have no problem with guys coming up with good metrics that can help coaches, but this isn't one of them.

Last time I checked, the Jags we not a winning team. In fact, had the Jags followed the Metricians, they would NEVER have drafted Gabbert in the first place. And Moneyball is lightyears away from football metrics as there are too many variables. What Bill james did was be able to quantify the game and it's different aspects mathematically and prove that the stats were a whole lot better then some scout saying the kid has a pretty swing. We can quantify that a batter batted his exact avg with NO subjectivity (unless you want to argue bloop hits as not being 'true' hits). Basing a metric SOLEY on highly subjective information gives you a very low degree of certainty of it's usefulness.

Really, the Jags only drafted Joekel because of sabermetrics? Funny, I'm pretty sure teams drafted very highly rated left tackles very early in the draft way before there was any sabermetrics!!! Furthermore, how would sabermetrics help the Jags to decide to move forward with Gabbert this year? He's been terrible! More likely, they came to the conclusion they might be one of the worst teams in football if gabbert continues as he has. If he stinks, they get the consolation prize of Johnny Football, the next 'great' QB prospect. Or, they could have gone after a Fitsimmons or Carr and do a little better, still not have a playoff team, and lose out on a shot at Johnny Football.

And lastly, I don't know what you mean they will find a way to use Gabbert effectively 'regardless' of their win loss record? I'm guessing you mean he will perform well (which SHOULD have an impact on their W/L record). Am I to expect a QB rating in the mid-high 80's then? What do you see as his completion %, total yards, total td's versus total turnovers? Sacks taken?

Gut