How accurate have the draft "experts" been in the past?

Discussion in 'NFL Draft' started by Laserjock, May 8, 2014.

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  1. Laserjock

    Laserjock South Endzone Rocks! Staff

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    I have never seen anyone actually put up a list, side-by-side, of past drafts...even just the first round...with indications of how many of the first 32 picks were called correctly by the "experts".

    I think that would be interesting to see if any of them actually are that good or are typical of weathermen and get paid their big bucks to be right 50% of the time.
     
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  2. The Playmaker

    The Playmaker pineapple pizza party

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    I think they're lucky to get 5 right honestly, which is why mock drafts are just for fun and shouldn't be taken seriously. We have no idea what the team's boards are like but people (not saying us) base their opinions on prospects based on what guys like Kiper and Mayock say, which is scary.
     
  3. Wolverine

    Wolverine Starter

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  4. The Playmaker

    The Playmaker pineapple pizza party

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    So basically outside the top 5 is a crapshoot for them.
     
  5. Thaddeus43

    Thaddeus43 Sunshiner President

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    Honestly surpised that Mayock got 9 picks right
     
  6. RollTide

    RollTide All-Pro

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    The problem with mocks is that if you are wrong about one pick you are going to be wrong 2X when another team takes that guy.


    In any event the thread is about how good analysts are at scouting players and you don't know that until years later.

    Kiper is basically the house guy the way I see it. His top 25 or top 100 is much like most; and all 32 teams big boards averaged out won't be that different but it takes courage to go against general opinion because if you are wrong you are going to get crapped on big time and might lose your job.

    You don't lose your job taking Clowney #1 but go against the grain ad tae Mack #1 and he fails?
     
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  7. Ten_Titans

    Ten_Titans Pro Bowler

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    Plaine Crappert is all you need to know.

    In their defense, it isn't an exact science. They operate under the assumption that players don't change once they make it in the NFL. Because you can't predict change.

    But they try. And they end up assuming bad players will become good, and average players won't improve.

    Edit: Didn't read and thought this was about their ability to predict talent. Predicting where players will go is a different(useless) science altogether.
     
  8. Tuckfro42

    Tuckfro42 Frozen Donkey Wheel

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    Mayock actually got twelve right. Patterson and Rhodes both went to the vikings, just in a different order. And, Lacy did go to the Packers, just later on in the draft. Pretty impressive in my opinion.
     
  9. Old Oiler Fan

    Old Oiler Fan Starter

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    Kiper, mcshay, and mayock all agree that Bortles will be available when the titans pick. Mcshay and mayock agree that manziel will also be available for the titans. It could be interesting!
     
  10. The Hammer

    The Hammer Ace Degenerate

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    Mayock is generally well respected and I have found him to be as accurate as anyone. Best ever is the late Joel Buchsbaum. He died over 12 years ago. Buchsbaum was actually the original draftnik.
     
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