Mettenburger's QB Metric Data

Okay. Still doesn't mean he sucks. Doesn't look like he sucks at all when I watch him.

 

The defense is going to have to run the show again this year.

If Locker struggles, i'm all for starting Mettenberger. Why not? Lets see what he can do for a few games before we blow another early pick on a bum QB.

 

History of late round QB selections.

Anything is possible but that doesn't mean it is likely.

Locker might turn into Brett Farve but it is not likely.

 

The guys at TR think he is

 

That's what they said about this year and look what happened.

 

He is not an elite QB.

Look at the current starters around the league and when they were drafted.

The history for QBs taken this late are not good.

 

I can't argue that history is not on his side but when you look at a guy and he exhibits all the traits that a QB needs to be successful it's not wise to write him off as "just a late round pick". This is a guy who was getting 2nd round grades from a few and many 3-4th round grades. He's not your typical 6th round pick. He played well against good competition and showed a lot of starter traits.

 

Mettenberger is the new Rusty Smith. Rusty was also drafted in the 6th round. When you see 6th round QB, think Rusty Smith, not Tom Brady.

 

Pre-Draft stats

Rusty Smith 6'5" 224lbs, 10,112 yds, 76TDs, 36Ints
Zach Mettenberger 6'5" 235lbs, 5783 yds, 35TDs, 15Ints

 

I think you are totally right that he's more likely to end up another Rusty than another TB.
But Rusty was a prospect only because of his physical attributes. Rusty was like another Blaine Gabbert. height, build, strength of a good QB, so they hoped they could develop one, even though they showed no signs of being good in college.

Mettenberger is a little different in that he had some production in college. Rusty and Gabbert never won anything or did anything impressive in their college careers. Rusty just had the "tools" and Mettenberger looks like he has shown a little competence on the field. That doesn't mean a ton (I mean, look at all the winning college QBs who sucked in the NFL) but it does mean more than drafting a QB version of #42 Chris Henry.

Of course, the odds are way against him ever being anything more than a backup, though.. based on draft position alone.