Trading #2

Discussion in 'NFL Draft' started by xpmar9x, Dec 28, 2014.

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  1. Yess

    71 vote(s)
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  2. Noo

    12 vote(s)
    14.5%
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  1. JR1980

    JR1980 Pro Bowler

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    It's a great thought, but I don't see anyone giving up the house to trade up for either of these QB's. Lets just start getting comfortable with one of the top 5 prospects already...lol
     
  2. titans1839

    titans1839 Starter

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    So I see now 3 scenarios for us

    Option 1: Stay at 2 and draft Leonard Williams and then Nate Orchard at the top of the 2nd (though I wouldn't mind a trade back here to grab an extra 3rd)

    Option 2: Trade with Cleveland and take both of their first at 12 and 19, their 2nd, and either a 3 this year or another 2nd next year. I would like this one. We can add Danny Shelton at 12 and Bud Dupree at 19, plus an extra 2 to go with ours and draft best available of CB, OT, or WR.

    Option 3: Eagles trade Foles plus more for the Rams pick. They then flip both first, second, fourth, second or third next year for ours. I still like Danny Shelton then Dupree at the Eagles pick.

    Don't see the Jets wanting to move up right now unless something happens. Not sure they will think Mariota is worth their first, second, and fourth to move up 4 spots.
     
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  3. JR1980

    JR1980 Pro Bowler

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    I'm not sure Shelton makes it to #12. Who knows at this point, that kid is sky rocketing up the board. I like the ideas though.
     
  4. ImATitan

    ImATitan Pro Bowler

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    Bud Dupree is a pure 4-3 end IMO, doesn't fit our scheme at all.

    Would you accept this offer from the Eagles:
    Nick Foles
    #20
    #53 (or whatever they have in the 2nd)
    A first next year
    A second next year

    That would be considered a kings ransom IMO. That may be too big of an offer to pass up, but you still have to pick the right players, which is easier said than done. Plus, picking at 20 instead of 2 means you're highly unlikely to land an immediate high impact player in this class.
     
  5. Thaddeus43

    Thaddeus43 Sunshiner President

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    No, I would not accept that trade offer ... they would need to throw in another future 1st round pick, and here why.

    If the Eagles want to trade, then the Titans are in a position of leverage right now. We have the spot that they want, and they must pay dearly to get it. We aren't in the business of charity, we aren't in the business of 'fair deals'. If they really want to trade up 18 spots for Mariota, then they are going to have to be on the losing end of this trade. If not, then we may as well trade it to some other team, or just sit there and take a top prospect.

    So with that in mind, the trade you proposed would put the Titans on the losing end of that deal from a 'value perspective' anyway (while not perfect, it is the best way we have to quantify the value of draft picks, and can be used as a guideline).

    The Titans #2 overall pick is worth 2600 pts ... the #20 pick is only worth 850 pots. So by swapping 1st round picks, the Titans still need 1750 points for it to be a 'fair deal' (2600-850=1750)

    #53 is worth 370 pts ... so Titans are still in need of 1380 points.

    Future draft picks are devalued by one round. So we would call the 1st rd pick of 2016 worth 580 pts and the 2nd rd pick of 2016 worth 265 pts (and that is being generous)

    So the Titans are still in need of 535 points to even make this a 'fair deal' for them (1380-580-265=535 pts)

    Now, you added Foles into the trade so you are basically valuing Foles at 535 points. That is like saying you think Foles is worth the #36 overall pick. Would you trade the Titans high 2nd round pick for Foles straight up? I wouldn't ... Esp considering he only has 1 year left on his contract.

    Also, We have the advantage here as well. We KNOW that if the Eagles trade up to #2, it is to get Mariota ... If the Eagles select Mariota, then we KNOW they don't need Foles. This means we can devalue Foles a ton. It basically doesn't hurt the Eagles at all to give him up if they are getting Mariota. Titans MUST take advantage of that, and work the trade so that Foles is nothing more than the 'Cherry on top', and doesn't really add much value to the trade.

    So when we combine the fact that Foles is only contract for 1 year (and could leave us after that) and that the Eagles don't need him anyway, then the Titans must devalue him to essentially 0 pts for this trade, and we are still left with a 535 point gap. That gap would be made up by the 2017 1st rd pick.


    Now, I know that is a LOT to give up for the Eagles, and they probably won't do it. But that IS what our pick is worth. We should not sell ourselves short of what it is worth.

    Trading from #20 to #2 is rare because of how much you would have to give up to do it.



    upload_2015-1-27_13-43-12.png
     
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  6. xpmar9x

    xpmar9x The Real Slim Shady

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    I doubt they trade with us. They'll be aware that Mariota doesn't fit in Whizs scheme so we likely won't draft him. After us they can wait til 5 & trade up right before the Jets would draft him. Trading up to #5 is a lot easier than #2
     
  7. Thaddeus43

    Thaddeus43 Sunshiner President

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    True, but that is why we have to pit a couple of teams against each other.

    We make the Jets think we are working a trade with the eagles ... we make the eagles think we are working a trade with the Jets.
     
  8. Thaddeus43

    Thaddeus43 Sunshiner President

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    Titans should already know who they want to draft at #2 going into the draft (not like there will be some surprise player that fell and will be sitting there). Titans only need to have 2 players on their big board, so their card should be ready to turn in from the start.

    That means the Titans are left with a ton of free time to work a trade. They should call up the Jets and say "Hey, we got the Eagles on the other line making a block buster trade ... how bad do you want your guy?"

    At the same time we need to be calling up the Eagles saying "Hey, we are about to finish a deal with the Jets ... how bad to you want your guy?"

    Scare them into a trade ... if neither bite, then we sit back and take Leonard
     
  9. xpmar9x

    xpmar9x The Real Slim Shady

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    LOL... our GM is Ruston Webster. We need Kevin Costner.
     
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  10. JCBRAVE

    JCBRAVE goTitans 2019 Survivor Champion

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    Throw in their ILB Mychal Kendricks and yes Id accept that trade with ease

    Your scenario gives us this years #20th, 53rd, 20 range in 2016 and 50 range 2015 pick, plus 2 starters? Thats 6 starters we could eventually have, for one pick Id do that all day.
     
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