Analytics in Pro Sports

Knowing a guy runs 22mph is the same as knowing a guy runs a 4.4 40, it's nearly no different

 

Football speed is different than track speed

and IMO its way more important to know when a guy no longer has it, Griffin, than the max speed of one of the fastest players


plays like MM8 made are glamorous but the mundane plays where it shows a guy is constantly dogging or hustling is the biggest value. To ignore this is not smart

 

I agree the new chips are huge and teams will be using it. Other teams only know a guys 40 once, in the beginning of his career. Now, teams know how fast guys are going and can bring in specialists to help teams with angles week to week against speedsters.

If you think thats far fetched, you're way behind.

Drafting is another area it is huge. You don't see draftees against NFL guys until maybe its to late. So analytics is another way to put these guys in a pool that is comparable. I know they do tests at the combine, but the new analytics are based more on in-game situations. Playing speeds.

 

I think the Browns are ahead of the curve when it comes to this. I'm impressed they are trying it. I mean, nothing else has worked for them anyway so why not. If they applied analytics before they'd have Teddy Bridgewater. I'm very interested to see how it turns out.

It would be crazy to think if it does work that teams around the NFL would start to model their franchises around the Browns.

With all the information that's at their fingertips it's almost crazy not to factor in the information. Why should we overpay for a player in free agency when analytics tells us he's not as productive as this other guy who is underrated but getting the job done as well.

Basically, play really good, don't slack off and you won't have to worry about your job security. Could be more in the evolution of the NFL.

 

And analytics won't just factor in speed or drops or broken tackles, it'll also factor in things like someones passion for football and the type of leader in the locker room. Those values will have high numbers too.

Johnny Manziel's college stats and analytics could purely say he's going to be a good player but they could also have factored in how much he loves the game and how seriously he will take it, all matched up with typical questioning and researching during the combine and maybe you learn not to pick that guy.

It doesn't mean it'll always work. Winstons analytics probably would say he is immature, but now he takes his job seriously.

It just gives might you a better chance at not drafting a bust.

 

I don't know if I would go that far. Browns may have just jumped off the analytics cliff. Teams now are probably on the 90-10 split between traditional and analytics, Browns may have just jumped to baseball status which is 90-10 also, but the other way.

We won't know for a few years for sure, but I'd be willing to bet now it crashes and burns. A bunch of fast dudes with no heart.

I think a 60-40 blend weighted towards traditional is where the league is headed. Tape matters more and always will.

 

Well I agree but they are hiring a GM to be in charge of scouting so it won'the just mostly be about the numbers. They will just factor those in now that they have smart guys who know what to do with those numbers and hopefully for them they will have a smart GM who can recognize pure talent.

 

Listening to some analytics experts trying to explain how they can be used in football to Herm Edwards is like listening to nuclear physicists trying to explain atomic structure to a middle schooler.

Just far enough below and above their respective levels that there is absolutely no communication happening.

Regardless, that segment convinced me that an organization is basically wasting their time with analytics unless they have a coaching staff that buys in 100%.

 

Analytics can be used in a multitude of ways! The problem is, baseball stats were already known and used but not the driving factor in decision making until Moneyball because baseball teams were concerned with talent, not stats and anything out of the 'normal' was ignored or cast away...such as a reliever with a quirky delivery.

Moneyball was great because they figured out how to translate one stat (essentially) into runs and runs into wins. If Podesta can figure that out with the Browns, it'll turn the league on its head. Football is a lot more difficult. In baseball, a pitcher vs a hitter is essentially a 1v1 duel. Football is never that so we need to look at other stats in context.

For example, we know winning percentages based on turnover differential. It drives teams to run the ball over throwing the ball and take rb's who fumble less.

But I think where Podesta comes in and makes a big impression is what we are already seeing. Rebuilding the roster thru the draft. We thought we were good in parlaying the #1 pick into a boatload of picks. Look at what the Browns did.

So they figured out how to 'play' the draft and how to value players (let a lot go in FA). When they do this for the next 5 years they could be a combo of what's best about the Pats and Ravens in terms of always having extra picks on the one hand, and being able to let players go in free agency to get more comp picks too!!! Theoretically, they can build a draft built roster that will allow them a better, cheaper, and deeper roster. So simply thru roster build, draft, and salary cap strategies, the Browns should drastically improve the TALENT on the team.

What was Moneyball really about? How to maximize the # of wins based on available talent within a team imposed salary cap. Here, all teams have the same cap (or every team has the yankees cap) so how do you gain a competitive advantage. We are already seeing it. They had 14 picks...tied for the most ever in a draft and they are already LOADED with extra picks next year too!!!

And that's not even looking at analytics in an on the field way or pay by play. Teams that don't have analytics departments will get left behind. The teams on the cutting edge who figure this out first, will be the biggest benefactors as the A's were before others caught on. Even today, a lot of teams in baseball don't apply analytics like they should. Because that is the key. How do you apply it and do you have the stones to actually do it. Like the HS coach who never punts and onside kicks the ball based on statistics. How many teams in the NFL COULD do that without getting their HC fired the first time it backfires?

Heck, even Belicheck took a lot of flak for going for it on 4th and 1 on his side of the field to try and keep the ball out of Peyton Mannings hands. When it backfired, people didn't care what the %'s say, they just blamed him because of the result.

As I've said before, when fans and owners only care about the result, you stick your neck out when you do anything unconventionally. Ironically, Manziel may have cost the team a lot, but maybe it took them doing a study and ignoring it for the analytics side to have been accepted and maybe - just maybe - this will be what turns the Browns around.

Now if they could just find the right guy to evaluate those players correctly!!!

 

On a unrelated topic I am jealous of you living in SD. Beautiful area.