McShays Final Tier Rankings

Discussion in 'NFL Draft' started by Dangermode, Apr 27, 2016.

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  1. Dangermode

    Dangermode A New Era has Begun

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    I found this interesting. You see guys all the way through Tier 5 here mocked in other peoples 1st round drafts. So much depth in this class it's ridiculous.

    As the 2016 NFL draft draws closer, it's time to finalize our draft tier rankings, which uses our grades to separate prospects into segments. This is helpful when comparing players who are close to each other in the rankings. It also helps with predicting where players will come off the board during the first three rounds of the draft.

    Here's the final version of our draft tiers for 2016, covering players with first-, second- and third-round grades (in parentheses next to each player's name). As you'll see, this class is lacking truly elite players, but it has a ton of depth in the middle rounds. Teams will have a lot of good talent to choose from in the latter half of Day 2.

    For reference, I put how many players were featured in each tier last year. Here's the full breakdown:

    Tier 1

    This is the elite class of prospects in the 2016 NFL draft. They should be starters from Day 1 and project as perennial Pro Bowl players.

    2016: 0 players

    2015: 2 players

    Tier 2

    A notch below the elite class but still worthy of a top-20 pick in most drafts. Expected to be plug-and-play starters

    2016: 8 players

    2015: 7 players

    1. Joey Bosa, DE, Ohio State (Grade: 94)
    2. Laremy Tunsil, OT, Mississippi (94)
    3. Jalen Ramsey, CB, Florida State (93)
    4. Ezekiel Elliott, RB, Ohio State (93)
    5. Ronnie Stanley, OT, Notre Dame (93)
    6. DeForest Buckner, DE, Oregon (92)
    7. Jack Conklin, OT, Michigan State (92)
    8. Myles Jack, OLB, UCLA (92)
    I like all of these players. I really do. But none of them quite rise to the level of Jameis Winston and Leonard Williams last year, both of whom cracked my top tier and went on to have productive rookie seasons. Bosa is the most pro-ready player in this class, while Tunsil and Jack have the highest ceilings. Elliott, who's certainly in play for Dallas at No. 4 overall, is the rare exception to the RB rule, much like Adrian Peterson and Todd Gurley.

    Tier 3

    These players carry late first-round grades.

    2016: 14 players

    2015: 14 players

    1. Leonard Floyd, OLB, Georgia (91)
    2. Carson Wentz, QB, North Dakota State (91)
    3. Jared Goff, QB, Cal (91)
    4. Sheldon Rankins, DT, Louisville (91)
    5. Darron Lee, OLB, Ohio State (91)
    6. Laquon Treadwell, WR, Mississippi (91)
    7. Josh Doctson, WR, TCU (91)
    8. Taylor Decker, OT, Ohio State (90)
    9. Shaq Lawson, DE, Clemson (90)
    10. Reggie Ragland, ILB, Alabama (90)
    11. Jarran Reed, DT, Alabama (90)
    12. Corey Coleman, WR, Baylor (90)
    13. Will Fuller, WR, Notre Dame (90)
    14. William Jackson III, CB, Houston (90)
    Looking for the hottest name in that draft? That would be Floyd. Teams around the league are now viewing his floor as the No. 10 overall pick (Giants). The difference between the top two QBs (Wentz and Goff) is like flipping a coin. Same goes for the top two WRs (Treadwell and Doctson). Who comes off the board first will ultimately come down to scheme fit and personal preference. Lawson had some of the most consistent tape I watched this year, and Ragland is far and away the best ILB prospect. Joshua Perry is our No. 2 player at that position with a 78 grade.

    Tier 4

    Would rather not reach for these prospects late in the first round, but they're good value picks in the first half of Round 2.

    2016: 16 players

    2015: 24 players

    1. Vernon Hargreaves III, CB, Florida (89)
    2. Karl Joseph, S, West Virginia (89)
    3. Eli Apple, CB, Ohio State (89)
    4. Vernon Butler, DT, Louisiana Tech (89)
    5. Hunter Henry, TE, Arkansas (89)
    6. Chris Jones, DT, Mississippi State (89)
    7. Germain Ifedi, OT, Texas A&M (88)
    8. Vonn Bell, S, Ohio State (88)
    9. Artie Burns, CB, Miami (88)
    10. Ryan Kelly, C, Alabama (88)
    11. Kevin Dodd, DE, Clemson (87)
    12. Kamalei Correa, OLB, Boise State (87)
    13. Robert Nkemdiche, DT, Mississippi (87)
    14. A'Shawn Robinson, DT, Alabama (86)
    15. Michael Thomas, WR, Ohio State (86)
    16. Paxton Lynch, QB, Memphis (85)
    Two CBs who are going in different directions: Hargreaves and Burns. Once thought to be in play for a top-10 pick, Hargreaves has slid down some teams' boards due to concerning measurables. Meanwhile, Burns' length and upside has him in the late first-round conversation. You could see both Robinson and Lynch come off the board in Round 1, but that'd be a pretty big reach based on our evaluation.

    Tier 5

    These players are middle or late second-round prospects.

    2016: 20 players

    2015: 16 players

    1. Tyler Boyd, WR, Pittsburgh (84)
    2. Connor Cook, QB, Michigan State (84)
    3. Kenny Clark, DT, UCLA (84)
    4. Jonathan Bullard, DE, Florida (83)
    5. Kendall Fuller, CB, Virginia Tech (83)
    6. Keanu Neal, S, Florida (83)
    7. Andrew Billings, DT, Baylor (83)
    8. Chris Moore, WR, Cincinnati (82)
    9. Austin Johnson, DT, Penn State (82)
    10. Mackensie Alexander, CB, Clemson (81)
    11. Christian Hackenberg, QB, Penn State (81)
    12. Joshua Garnett, G, Stanford (81)
    13. Braxton Miller, WR, Ohio State (81)
    14. Derrick Henry, RB, Alabama (81)
    15. Deion Jones, OLB, LSU (81)
    16. Jason Spriggs, OT, Indiana (81)
    17. Jihad Ward, DE, Illinois (81)
    18. Noah Spence, OLB, Eastern Kentucky (80)
    19. Emmanuel Ogbah, DE, Oklahoma State (80)
    20. Nick Vannett, TE, Ohio State (80)
    Cook and Hackenberg are in the late first-round/early second-round discussion because of the positional value of quarterbacks. Cook is comfortably ahead of Hackenberg on our board. Ogbah had flashes where he'd look unstoppable, but overall, his tape was too inconsistent to give him anything higher than a late second-round grade.

    Tier 6

    These players are third-round prospects. They could develop into solid starters, but they either have limited upside or come with a higher element of risk than players worth drafting in the first two rounds.

    2016: 46 players

    2015: 32 players

    1. Cody Whitehair, G, Kansas State (79)
    2. Sheldon Day, DT, Notre Dame (79)
    3. Sterling Shepard, WR, Oklahoma (79)
    4. Austin Hooper, TE, Ohio State (79)
    5. Nick Martin, C, Notre Dame (79)
    6. Darian Thompson, S, Boise State (79)
    7. Hassan Ridgeway, DT, Texas (79)
    8. Alex Lewis, OT, Nebraska (78)
    9. Leonte Carroo, WR, Rutgers (78)
    10. Adam Gotsis, DE, Georgia Tech (78)
    11. Jerell Adams, TE, South Carolina (78)
    12. Willie Henry, DT, Michigan (78)
    13. Joshua Perry, ILB, Ohio State (78)
    14. Pharoh Cooper, WR, South Carolina (77)
    15. Su'a Cravens, S, USC (77)
    16. Cyrus Jones, CB, Alabama (77)
    17. Shilique Calhoun, DE, Michigan State (77)
    18. Jaylon Smith, OLB, Notre Dame (77)
    19. Adolphus Washington, DT, Ohio State (77)
    20. Maliek Collins, DT, Nebraska (76)
    21. Kenneth Dixon, RB, Louisiana Tech (76)
    22. Xavien Howard, CB, Baylor (76)
    23. Carl Nassib, DE, Penn State (76)
    24. Christian Westerman, G, Arizona State (76)
    25. Jordan Payton, WR, UCLA (75)
    26. KeiVarae Russell, CB, Notre Dame (75)
    27. Devontae Booker, RB, Utah (74)
    28. Javon Hargrave, DT, South Carolina State (74)
    29. Daryl Worley, CB, West Virginia (74)
    30. C.J. Prosise, RB, Notre Dame (73)
    31. Shon Coleman, OT, Auburn (73)
    32. Justin Simmons, S, Boston College (73)
    33. Bronson Kaufusi, DE, BYU (72)
    34. Jalen Mills, S, LSU (72)
    35. Jordan Jenkins, OLB, Georgia (71)
    36. Jordan Howard, RB, Indiana (71)
    37. Joe Schobert, OLB, Wisconsin (70)
    38. Ronald Blair, DT, Appalachian State (70)
    39. Le'Raven Clark, OT, Texas Tech (70)
    40. Kenyan Drake, RB, Alabama (70)
    41. T.J. Green, S, Clemson (70)
    42. Will Redmond, CB, Mississippi State (70)
    43. Nick Kwiatkoski, ILB, West Virginia (70)
    44. Deon Bush, S, Miami (FL) (70)
    45. Charles Tapper, DE, Oklahoma (70)
    46. Briean Boddy-Calhoun, CB, Minnesota (70)
    This is where the depth of the class really comes into play, and why we've seen Tennessee and Cleveland -- two teams with glaring needs at multiple positions -- trading back from the first and second overall picks in exchange for a haul of mid-round selections. The Titans now own six of the top 76 picks, while the Browns have six of the top 100. Both franchises have a great opportunity to find some good values on Days 2 and 3.
     
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  2. Chronos

    Chronos Pro Bowler

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    Let's hope we avoid the usual Titans' tears rankings this year.
     
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  3. J Falk

    J Falk Starter

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    I swear these guys all look at the same mock drafts and judge players based off that instead of actually evaluating them themselves.

    There's no other explanation for why players like Leonard Floyd, Joey Bosa, and Ezekiel Elliot would continuously get ranked so highly.
     
  4. J Falk

    J Falk Starter

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    The fact that notre dame has 2 1st round picks in most mocks is laughable as well. And don't get me started on Ohio state...8 top 50 picks. Cmon...when was the last time one of these schools consistently sent good talent to the pros?.....

    These two schools have been getting overhyped by all the analysts on ESPN for far too long.
     
    #4 J Falk, Apr 27, 2016
    Last edited: Apr 27, 2016
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  5. Chronos

    Chronos Pro Bowler

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    I think the lack of true top tier-can't -miss guy has them hyping every player who is even halfway decent.
     
  6. Titans2004

    Titans2004 Pro Bowler

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    The lack of top end talent is part of the reason that I hope we can still gain more picks in next yrs draft. This draft is for building your core and next yrs draft is for going for the studs. I'd be fine if Conklin doesn't fall to us to trade further back in the 1st for a 2nd next yr. Or trade out of #33 for a 1st rnder next yr.

    So McShay only has this draft with 22 players with 1st rnd talent. The interesting thing is that everyone has been talking about how bad this class is at WR, yet he has 4 1st rnd grades on WRs.
     
  7. The Playmaker

    The Playmaker pineapple pizza party

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    Well Ohio St and Notre Dame are always at the top of the recruiting rankings so it's not that surprising to see Notre Dame and Ohio St have a few top prospects.
     
  8. chapa_el

    chapa_el Starter

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    Ya. And Ohio state just won the title with those players so idk what that guy is smoking. At least TRY to be unbiased
     
  9. J Falk

    J Falk Starter

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    Lol. Look at their draft history. The proof is in the pudding. Everyone knows(at least I hope they do) that notre dame doesn't play anybody and the big 10 is by far the most overrated conference in college.

    For example, Devin smith and Louis nix were constantly ranked in the 1st round last year...Where did they get drafted? Nfl scouts don't fall for that **** even though the analysts try their damndest.
     
  10. xhrr

    xhrr Starter

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    Dude relax not every player pans out regardless of college. You know OSU won the National championship right? Just might have something to do with them having a ton of draft eligible talent. Idk who your referring to from ND getting hyped. I guess no small school player should ever get drafted because they "don't play anybody"

    Just because historically Urban Meyer players have been hit or miss isn't a reason to avoid players of his.

    Devin smith has played a whole one NFL shortened season due to injury and Nix had knee issues before the draft and ending up going in the third round. If your gonna come with an argument at least have some decent examples.
     
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