Thom's First-Round Mock--comments appreciated

Discussion in 'NFL Draft' started by citizenthom, Apr 4, 2011.

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  1. citizenthom

    citizenthom Rookie

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    Me neither; see above.
     
  2. nickmsmith

    nickmsmith Most poverty RB core.

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    they really should do mock drafts for money like they do for NCAA brackets. That'd be entertaining. Nobody would guess it correctly.
     
  3. CALI_TITANS

    CALI_TITANS Starter

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  4. RollTide

    RollTide All-Pro

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    To xpmar9x


    I agree he is a 4-3 end all the way and can be a damn good one. A 3-4 team would be more likely drafting a DT like Liuget to play end.

    That said i notice you like Powe for the titans later on. At first i thought about that as well but the bottom line on him is that he is a 3-4 NT and nothing more. Powe has almost no range to play in our system.
     
  5. RollTide

    RollTide All-Pro

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    Austin wasn't half the impact player at UNC that Fairley was last year at Auburn and as everybody knows Austin didn't play last year at all. I do hope somebody falls in love enough with him to take him over Wilkerson so he can fall to us at 39.

    Austin had 2 sacks and 6 tfl in 09. How do you compare that to Fairley's 11 sacks and 24 tfl?

    I'm not surprised austin is moving up. There is a premium on any guy over 310 lbs who can move well. Just not that many in a typical draft.
     
  6. Gut

    Gut Pro Bowler

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    Off the top of my head...

    No way will Carolina take a WR. They have major pressing needs at QB (with no 2nd rnd pick and what free agent QB wants to go there?) and on defense. QB, DT, DE or possibly PP if they love him.

    I think Dareus is everyone's pick for the Broncos but they could surprise with an AJ Green, PP, or even a QB!

    I think the Bills will take a QB (Gabbert or Newton) because they still don't have that IT QB. They need help all over the place and should draft the BPA but I don't think they will. If they are OK with their QB situation, and DL player like Fairly or Quinn make sense but so do AJ Green and PP.

    Bengals will most likely either take a QB (Gabbert or Newton), AJ Green (who do they have now?) or PP (as they most likely will need a CB).

    Funny how everyone has Von Miller going to the Cards but they are in DESPERATE need for a QB. I don't think they take a QB because McNabb going there makes too much sense. But this could be the other surprise team that takes a QB, Green or a PP. If the Cards don't take Miller here, he could drop a ways.

    I think the Browns will take either AJ Green or PP if either is still on the board, then a QB if one they like is still on the board, then DL.

    I'm not sold the Niners take Gabbert (he might already be gone). They need a lot of help and very well could take BPA. Would be funny if Harbaugh takes Newton here after so over-praising him!

    Of the top tier players, I think the Titans likely have their choice of Fairley, Bowers, Prince, Julio Jones, or a QB. Please don't let it be a QB (which means we're doomed to take one).

    I think the Boys take Smith over Carimi.

    If Gabbert or Newton is still on the board, I think the Skins take one. No one believes McNabb will be back and only insanity thinks Grossman is the answer at QB. Aldon Smith, Prince, Julio Jones, or a fallen defensive players would be non-qb choices I think.

    I think the Vikings take Watt, Kerrigan, Jordan, QB, or go OL. They really need a talent and youth upgrade at OL but their D is old and falling off. Could also surprise with a Phil Taylor or Julio Jones.

    I see Detroit taking Aldon Smith, Ryan Kerrigan, Watt or Julio Jones. An OT wouldn't surprise me either. Shock pick would be Ingram to team up with Best.

    I think Dolphins won't take Ingram that early as they have a lot of needs. WR, OL, D back 7.....oh, and possibly QB. They are the clean up team...whatever player has fallen, they will take.

    I think NE goes defense unless they can jump up and grab one of the falling defensive players or get a Julio Jones. More likely, they drop back a bit, pick up another pick later or next year. I think they land a defensive player like Jordan or Aldon Smith if they are lucky. If they move back, perhaps a pass rushing OLB, CB, OL.

    I think Luiget is more likely to be taken where you have Peia and flip those picks. If Luiget is there at 17, I could see him being one of the guys the Pats drop down a couple of spots and land anyway.

    I personally don't like Clayborn in rnd 1. I like Aldon Smith and Wilkerson's upside better.

    I think the Seahawks try to trade down and make their spot the come and get the QB you want before rnd 2 happens and you lose your chance. They will want to drop down and get their TE later. Don't be shocked if this is where you see Ryan Mallet, Newton, or Ponder go whether it's the Seahawks or another team here.

    Don't be shocked if NE drops back a bit again and then takes Rahim Moore due to Merriweather's situation.

    Green Bay is praying Taylor or Wilkerson falls to them. Otherwise, they'd be wise to auction the pick to the most desperate team wanting one of the QB's that's left.

    There will be quite the auction going on near the end of the first rnd as teams jockey to get ahead of the worst place teams top picks in rnd 2. You want Ryan Mallet, a falling Newton, Ponder or Stanzi. You might have to jump up here to get them (though I could just as easily see Stanzi and Ponder go in the 3rd).

    Gut
     
  7. Gut

    Gut Pro Bowler

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    Well...

    Outside of Carolina's situation (need a QB and no 2nd rnd pick), I don't think Green would go #1 overall. He's an excellent impact player at his position but he still lacks elite speed. Does that mean who won't be a perennial Pro Bowler and HOF player? No. It just means you're less likely to see him get there. Is he a better Pro Prospect coming out than Calvin Johnson or Andre Johnson?

    The ONLY chance Green has to be #1 is that there is no clear cut QB or defensive player worthy of the #1 pick (though PP may disagree). But Carolina's situation all but kills it for Green.

    Plus, some teams might be scared of the Mike Williams comparison and others may see it as the Bill Walsh approach (WR is the last piece to the puzzle).

    Gut
     
  8. citizenthom

    citizenthom Rookie

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    See, this was my stance since I started really getting into pro football in '03: taking a first-round WR was a suicide move. And for a long time I was right: teams that did so usually ended up falling off in the coming years, the bust rate was VERY high, and by the time the good ones did catch on, the rest of the team had aged, retired, or otherwise rebooted.

    But I can no longer deny that the trend is going the other way. Guys are coming out of college with better route-running skills, better understanding of complex offenses, better blocking, better everything. The last couple of drafts have had more hits than misses in first-round WRs (see Kenny Britt), and teams that drafted them early have continued on an upward trend (Calvin Johnson). And for the past couple of Super Bowls, a deep WR corps has been a big factor in the winner's success.

    So now I have to look at a guy like Green as someone who could majorly change a franchise for the better, even have an immediate impact. And I have to compare him man-for-man with other guys who have just as many risk factors like Fairley (can he translate to the NFL?), Dareus (can he be as effective in a 4-3?), Peterson (too many big plays given up, and can he be a CB at the next level), Gabbert (WHO?), and Newton ("I want to be an icon"). I know the knocks, but I see the least downside with Green out of all the top prospects.
     
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