Playoff Breakdown

I think it was a 49er upset because I remember telling my brother they better win (he's a 49er fan).

*Yeah, 49ers needed to beat Denver and they did.

 

I honestly think if we win everything else will fall into our favor.

Unfortunately I don't think we will win. We are a weak offense facing one of the best defenses. We can't stop the run and that's all the Texans do... and they do it well.

For us to win this game, everyone is going to have to step up. We can definitely win this game. We've only been swept by Houston once, and that was a fluke year in our worst season as the Titans.

It sure will suck if everything we need to happen does happen only for us to lose.

 

Two things have to happen for any shot.

1) WIN against Texans
2) Cincy lose against Ravens

I remember a few years ago we needed like 7 things to go our way and they ALL did but the only thing that didnt was us losing vs New England. But I think we are all forgetting this is a .500 team. Some times we look great and others we stink up the joint. But in the end of the day we are no better than 9-7 or 8-8. Next year I would like to see us build up our defense more and I think we will be ok.

 

I think we get in....no way Houston plays everyone with how unlucky they've been w/ injuries this year

 

Yep. I didn't even read this post, but that's what I'm afraid will happen.

We were 8-7 going against the Pats in week 17. It was close for a while, but I believe they got a pick 6 late and beat us something like 41-23.

 

SCENARIO 1:
TEN win -3
NYJ win +1.5
BAL win -3
KC win +3.5
OAK win -3

OR

SCNEARIO 2
TEN win -3
NYJ win +1.5
BAL win -3
SD win +3

OR

SCENARIO 3
TEN win -3
MIA win -1.5
DEN win -3.5
OAK win -3
BAL win -3

Above I added the early point spreads to the games we need to go our way. You could run the odds of hitting any of the above parlays, and it would tell our true %. The odds of 4 teams winning is 6.2% and 5 teams is 3.1%. If we assume all odds are an even spread, which would yield a reasonably close result since a lot of the net +/- spreads are close to zero would be ...

6.2% + 3.1% + 3.1% = 12.4%

Since scenario 3 are all slight favorites to happen, the true odds are probably a little closer to 16-18% or so. I'll take it.

 

Why does everyone keep saying we need Oak to lose?

In a 3way tie, we make it.

Titans Win
Ravens Win
Raiders OR Jets win

So a Titans/Bengals/Raiders 3way tie, or a Titans/Bengals/Jets 3way tie, and we make the playoffs.

Looks like to me an Oakland win actually helps us, if the Jets lose? Like we need either a OAK or NYJ win, NOT both. We need that 3way tie.

It even says on NFL.COM
Titans are still alive, but they need to beat Houston and get help. They would win a two-team tiebreaker with the Jets and a three-team tiebreaker with the Bengals and Raiders.

 

I'm nervous about that Ravens/Bengals game....

Remember the Ravens are on the road AND they always let the opposition hang around especially if its a team with a lesser record.

 

Ravens playing for first round bye. They will bring their A-game. I'm most worried about jets. They haven't been impressive in a while.