32 Ranked Defense?

Discussion in 'NFL Draft' started by Titans2008, Apr 25, 2007.

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  1. Titans2008

    Titans2008 Camp Fodder

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    It has often been quoted that we had the 32nd rated defense last year and have certainly even went backwards from last year in having perhaps our best defender (pacman) suspended for probably the entire season and perhaps indefinitely. But did we really have the worst defense last year? Looking at our roster, it doesn't look like we are a last place team on defense. We definitely have talent: Haynesworth, PacMan, Hope, and Bullock are among the elite players at their respective positions. KVB had a bit of a down year but he is expected to be a near pro bowl caliber player. On top of that, the only positions where we have insufficient talent imo would be MLB (question mark with new addition) and safety (LT!?!). Just one year ago, DE was the strength of our team and the only reason we think it's a pressing need now is due to A. Odom missing the season. At CB, we have 3 players that could start at 2 positions in Harper, Hill, and Finnegan. Even if some of this is arguable, most would agree that our lineup does not look like one that should be finishing 32nd in the league. So what happened? For many people that watched every Titans game, one trend was clear: either both our offense and defense played well or neither played well. It seemed to happen every week. I see one of two possible causes (or more likely a combination of both): either (1) that's because there is a clear separation of good teams from bad teams on the schedule that we played or (2) there is something that ties the defense and offense together. Most everyone is familiar with "the best defense is a good offense". But then there is also "defense wins championships". So which applies? Well, here is an interesting correlation.


    When we get 20+ first downs, we allow an average of 20.6 points per game.
    When we get 1-19 first downs, we allow an average of 27.5 points per game.

    Percentage of games of 20+ first downs that we won: 80%


    Now, that is nothing groundbreaking, but it does point out something rather obvious that few seem to take into consideration: adding defensive talent will not help if we can't keep them off the field. So why take defense just because they are ranked 32nd? If our offense has lost all its playmakers and we never get 20 first downs in a game, all the talent in the world isn't going to help. We were 2:43 below the league average for Time of Possession. Of note is that we would have surely been even lower than that if we had not ran the ball at such a high rate and with relatively good success (*cough* Travis Henry who is no longer with us).


    Contrast this with the amount of first downs allowed versus the points we score:

    When we allow 20+ first downs, we score an average of 20.6 points per game.
    When we allow 1-19 first downs, we score an average of 19.7 points per game.

    Percentage of games of 1-19 first downs allowed that we won: 50%


    So, granted with a relatively small sample size, it's clear that offense and moving the ball has a greater correlation with on the field success than defense does. With our offensive moves, I don't think it is a point of much contention that we have lost much more on offense than on defense. If we don't replace some of our offensive losses, expect a long season irregardless of Vince.
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  2. so draft a wr, i like the sound of it
    #2
  3. Titans2008

    Titans2008 Camp Fodder

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    I think we have to make a move for a 2nd running back (or a 1st to pair with L. White as the case may be) and a receiver (or maybe 2, actually). I'm not sure which I would go after. I think LJ would be worth a number 1. I think Turner is worth a number 2. I like Meachem and Bowe at receiver in the first. Any way it goes, we need to upgrade our offense badly. I'm not saying we don't need defensive help, but I think we have enough playmakers on defense if we could just keep them off the field and give them a point cushion.
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  4. and a break, cause they were on there way to long this season
    #4
  5. Deuce Wayne

    Deuce Wayne Damnit, I cant find my driving moccasins anywhere!

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    Until we can stop going 3 and out every possession 'til the 4th quarter, no defense we field will be worth anything. Defenses shouldn't have to feel like they're in an ironman contest.
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  6. Gut

    Gut Starter

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    Well...

    It is not as simple as that.

    If you want a clear picture to make your point, you have a ton of statistics to go through.

    But I understand where you're coming from.

    First - I agree we have significantly better talent than a last placed defense.

    Second - Offense has an impact on defensive stats.

    Third - Stopping opponents on defense on 3rd down will have MORE of an effect in improving our OFFENSE and winning percentage.

    Fourth - Our defense gives up WAY to many big plays through the air.

    Fifth - Much of the defensive problems stem from 3 things...no quality RDE, Lamont starting at S...and our NUMBER ONE problem - Schwartz 'coordinating' the D (or not depending on how you look at it).

    Sixth - There is no accountability on this team for on the field performance. And yes, I'm talking about Fisher with the last 2!


    Maybe 20 years ago, when Wade Phillips (an excellent DC by the way), was the head coach of the Broncos, they had fallen short of making the playoffs. He figured that if his offense had scored another few points a game they would have gone to the playoffs. So in the offseason, they spent a lot of money to aquire one of the most dangerous WR's in the AFC but neglected the D that was ranked poorly. What do you think happened the next year?

    They were worse!

    If you look at the most comprehensive list of stats, you'll find one reality.

    Defense wins championships! Sure, there are the rare exceptions when a high powered offense can get it done (Colts), but they are few and far between and require a good-great DC to give them a chance. We don't have the offense nor the DC.

    If you changed DC's right now, we'd have a D in the middle of the pack....and that's without Pacman. As it stands, I don't think we'll get back to middle of the pack ranking (under Schwartz) until we have Pac back opposite Harper, Griffin playing well opposite Hope, AND a good pass rushing DE we probably won't have for at least another year. And that is a WASTE!

    Gut
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  7. zackmann

    zackmann Guest

    what?

    DE was a strength of our team? I have to disagree...ever since The Freak left, DE has not been strong...

    i like Odom...i really do...but even if he is healthy to play all 16 games (doubtful by his track record), he is a borderline NFL starter...and the depth behind KVB and Odom is horrible...so much so, that we had DT's playing DE last year...
    #7
  8. LT21Titans27

    LT21Titans27 Tebow Apostle

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    KV freakin B

    Did you forget his pro bowl season, kinda hard to repeat once you see double, even triple teams bc the other half of teh line has no push
    #8
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