Colts Game?

word.

 

Odds of TN vs Pitt playing in AFC Championship =

1 TN home win + 1 Pitt home win since we know we are 1 & 2 seeds and get bye. So, it would be like betting a 2-game parlay with just the moneylines (the teams to win straight up with no spread)

If all teams were equal and played on neutral fields, it would be a 4:1 chance.
But, since we're both home teams, we will each be favored to win our home games, probably us by 2-3 pts and Pitt by 3-4 pts.

Odds of a single 3-pt favorite winning straight up is roughly a 1/1.6 edge. 2 consecutive 3-point favorites winning would be:

(1/1.6 + 1)^2 = 2.64/1 = odds that Pitt vs TN meet in AFC Title game

 

you can't count much on who is favored though, seeing the past few superbowl champs, but impressive that you figured all that out though.

 

Yes, you can count on who will be favored, and by how much. The ratings do not work as well on big favorites like us against the Lions. There are power rankings that Vegas uses as indicators to issue spreads based on these ratings and then adjust them for public image and end-game styles (whether one team is explosive or conservative).

In fact, Tennessee right now is the highest rated team based on probably the gold standard in ratings, Saragin's, meaning that according to them, we are a favorite on a neutral field against every team in the NFL:

http://www.usatoday.com/sports/sagarin/nfl08.htm

It is VERY safe to assume that Tennessee will be favored roughly a field goal at home in it's home game (almost a guarantee it's between 2 and 6 pts), and Pitt will be favored the same in theirs. My guess is that Baltimore and Indy would provide the lowest spread while Miami/Denver would be on the high end. So, for the 2 of us to play in the AFC game, we each just need to win that 1 game.

That 2.64/1 number is about exactly what the odds would be if you went to a casino and tried to be on it to happen (minus 10-15% or so for juice).