Feelin' a draft?

Discussion in 'Tennessee Titans and NFL Talk' started by Gut, May 3, 2012.

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  1. Gut

    Gut Pro Bowler

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    My take on the titans draft and what I think they should have done and why I think the organization is a little out of whack with personell, offensive personality and the cap.

    Before going any further, grab a snack and commence munching!

    My draft philosophy is two-fold. First, draftpicks have value and best player available is never in a vacuum no matter how much you hear the term. No one actually takes bpa unless you have a need or are a bad drafting franchise. Just ask the older Detroit Lions how constantly drafting WR's high worked out for them. (Here's a hint - it DIDN'T!) Ask the Rams why they would give up the 2nd best player in the draft and the #2 pick. Wasn't RJ3 the bpa at the 2nd pick? And yet they traded out. Need always plays a factor. The better way to look at the draft is to assign value to each pick (as per the NFL's point system for trading picks) and for you to fill a need by getting the highest rated player at an appropriate value. For example, if you had a WR and an OG rated equally but you didn't have a strong need for a WR but were desparate for an OG, you take the OG. If you're even smarter, you draft down to the lowest spot you think you can still get that guard and still get more picks (which equals more value).

    The second concept is to take starters in rnd 1, potential starters in rnd 2, role players or developmental guys in rnds 3-4 and rnd 5-7 will be developmental guys, special teamers or more specific role players. Additionally, you are hoping for Pro Bowl caliber players in rnd 1, near pro bowl players in rnd 2, and starters to above avg starters (even if its down the road) in rnds 3-4. I don't believe in over-drafting athletes who aren't great football players so usually athletic phenoms who are avg players I don't touch until rnd 3 but it also depends on need and what exactly they can do for me. I don't believe in spending 6 or 7th rnd picks on camp fodder.

    Here's the basic rundown of where I think our roster was prior to the draft.

    QB - set for now and the future.
    RB - set for now and the future. I'll give CJ a pass for last year but if he doesn't pick it up...RB could be on the dockett for 2013.
    FB - need one but can get one undrafted, fa, or udfa.
    TE - set for now and the near future.
    WR - set for now and the near future except for Britt being injury prone and Wash was banged up a lot last year. I like what Ive seen in Williams and Hawkins but might need some depth or future talent.
    OL - need 2 starters (OC and OG) and future developmental talent as Hutch is old. have backups.
    DL - need more pass rush talent and depth (especially developmental). Could use a star DT or more quality depth...especially if good at run stopping or pass rushing or both.
    LB - Set for now and the immediate future. Don't love McCarthy in pass coverage, Spoon is getting up there in years and can McRath be the starter after him?
    CB - 2 solid starters and some solid depth. Not sure if we have a nickel I can rely on but either depth, nickel or even starter upgrade would be wise.
    FS - assuming Griff comes back, in a good spot though could always use depth.
    SS - Babs is ok for now but could use a playmaker here.
    Special teams is fine and in good shape though we might want a more explosive returner.

    For me that translates into...
    Need
    OC
    OG

    Want
    Pass rushing DE
    Starter quality DT
    Nickel or starter quality CB

    Could use
    Developmental player at numerous positions

    Our draft
    1st rnd - Kendall Wright, WR - I think this guy could be an excellent WR. I see his upside as a cross between Wes Welker and Desean Jackson. He's not as shifty as Welker nor as fast as Jackson but he can hurt you deep and in short area too. He's also one of those rare guys who plays FASTER than he times. I think Wright's value was right where it should be (I had him as a top 20 pick) BUT, I would not have taken him.

    I would have taken OG Decastro. I had Decastro as a higher rated player AND he fills a gigantic need for us. While Wright may add some explosiveness to our offense, this pick (unless the front office does something in Free Agency) makes us a pass first team when our best player is a RB stuck behind an OL that is very inconsistent run blocking in the interior 3. This is the opposite of what you want as you develop a young QB. Decastro would start from day 1 and could be a Pro Bowl caliber OG or OC for the next decade. Wright probably won't even start this year.

    2nd rnd - Zach Brown, OLB - Brown is exactly the kind of guy I don't overdraft but KNOW someone will. As mentioned above, great athletes who aren't great football players I don't take in the first or second rnd but many people do and they usually pay for it. The upside to Brown and how he fits is this - Gray is going back to a more traditional approach in the sense that we will have a Sam (strongside LB) in Ayers and now a Will (Weakside LB) in Brown who can fly to the ball. Additionally, his size/speed will allow him to cover these super big/fast/quick pass-catching TE's and quick rb's. He can also rush the passer a bit and is pretty good at sniffing out screens and same side pitches.

    The downside is he has a lot of work to do in becoming a solid OLB fundamentally. He typically tries to run around blockers and that works sometimes in college...not so well in the Pros. When he does get engaged by blockers he rarely makes it back into the play. He is a weak tackler and more of a drag down type. Outside of screens, he doesn't read plays too well and is not as good in pass coverage as you'd expect. I had Brown rated as a 3rd rnd pick but expected him to get over-drafted) in the late 1st to mid-2nd round. I would have tried to trade up about 5 spots to get in front of San Diego (to take Worthy) or stayed put and taken OC Peter Konz. I had Worthy rated a late 1-early 2 player and Konz a 2nd rnd pick. Worthy is starter potential and star potential. Konz was the best OC prospect in the draft and would fill an even bigger hole.

    3rd rnd - Mike Martin, DT - Funny thing is, I would have taken Martin just where the Titans did. The players I liked better went earlier and if I had gone OL in rnd 1 and 2, Martin would have been my guy. I like shorter DT's who were former wrestlers because they understand leverage and usually are high motor guys. Martin fits this bill! While he's not a great pass rusher nor a hold up the double team at the point of attack, he's a high effort movement guy who is hard to handle on the move. He makes a lot of plays on secondary moves and hustle through the whistle. I think with some coaching, his run D could be much better and if they can train him to fire off the snap, he'll be even better and another potential day 1 starter. If gray is serious about beefing up the line with a nose tackle sized guy even though we play a 4-3, Ta'amu would have been given some consideration.

    4th rnd - Coty Sensabaugh, CB - Sensabaugh is a nice player though I had him in the 5th-6th range. He's a good CB but like a lot of college CB's who look the part, he doesn't have good ball instincts when it's in the air and for me that's a pet peeve. When CB's faceguard 2 bad things happen....you get killed with backshoulder throws because you don't look for the ball or you get called for pass interference because you face guarded him and that's not allowed! Sensabaugh can come in and compete with our younger secondary players for nickel, dime, etc. positions as well as special teams but I would have taken CB Brandon Boykin whom I had a low 2nd rnd grade on. He hurt his leg at the worst possible time before the draft but has starter potential when healthy.

    5th - Taylor Thompson, TE/DE - Again, this guy was taken right where I graded him to be. He's one of those size/speed freaks who ends up in the 5th rnd because he's never played that position. Do I like having him on the team? Yes, absolutely. Could he be a raw Gronkoski down the road? Sure. But I would have taken S George Illoka, S. Iloka has the size of a traditional SS but some of the pass defending skills of a FS. Would push Babs for starting time, give depth to the backend and could develop into a good starter.

    6th - Markelle Martin, FS - This was the ONLY player in our draft I had graded HIGHER than where they picked him. Martin is coming off injuries so he'd likely have gone rounds higher if he wasn't. When he's finally recovered, he's a good safety. I would have taken OC David Polk. Gives me young depth at OC behind Konz and Konz could also backup OG.
    7th - Scott Solomon, DE - Solomon is an excellent player but gets by due to his high motor and tenacity, not his NFL athleticism. He will push guys in training campl but probably won't make the roster. I would have taken Vontaze Burfict, ILB. Burfict has a tendecy to make plays!

    Gut
     
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  2. steverife

    steverife Pro Bowler

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    Nice post, but...

    ...you mention having various people graded out at certain rounds. How does that work? I have an idea how it works for various services that pro teams subscribe to, but how does a fan grade a player? I feel like I follow this stuff pretty closely and have a good feel for a lot of folks, but I don't have access to 90% of what the pro guys do...

    Also, Burfict is the plague.
     
  3. JiminyBillyBob

    JiminyBillyBob Pro Bowler

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    Interesting post. You have some valid points and good reasoning. However, I totally disagree with taking interior O-line Rd.1 and 2
     
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  4. Clark

    Clark #ShoutboxAlley4Life

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    Lol
     
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  5. Titans2004

    Titans2004 Pro Bowler

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    I would have taken DeCastro or Hightower in rnd 1 because I see them as very safe and productive picks who are plug in starters from day 1. I had Hightower rated as the BPA on my board.

    You brought up an interesting point about the pick making us a pass first team instead of a run first team. This very well could be a big shift in our offensive philosophy. Although Amano and the interior OL take tons of crap about their run blocking, they were a solid unit in pass protection. So you could say that the draft played towards what our OL does best which is pass block. Use the pass to set up CJ.

    I loved the Martin pick and honestly would have been fine with taking him in the 2nd rnd. I think his production/work ethic/athleticism was just as good as any other DT on the board when we picked in the 2nd.

    I really think that Jerry Gray will try to put Brown in situations where he can use his speed....blitzing off the edge or covering TEs
     
  6. 757Titan

    757Titan We had zero pro bowlers

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    If you were our GM we would be the Browns or Dolphins. OG/C round 1. How do you know Decastro will be a pro bowler, bc of the media hype?? What if Munch didn't like any of the OL, does that mean pick a guiy they saw flaws in but you think will be a pro bowler. I just wasted a lot of time reading this.
     
  7. TheSureThing

    TheSureThing Straight Cash Homie

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    Zach Brown wasn't overdrafted....he had 1st round talent.

    he's going to surprise a lot of you.
     
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  8. Thaddeus43

    Thaddeus43 Sunshiner President

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    I think taking a WR in the 1st and completely ignoring the OL for the entire draft is a sign that the offensive philosophy is transitioning. We aren't going to go into games with the mentality of "We must get CJ 20+ carries to win". We will no longer use the run to open up the pass, but instead use the pass to set up the run. CJ may be our best player, but our 2nd,3rd,4th,5th best players are Qb's and WR's so the majority of this teams talent is centered around the passing game.

    If this is infact the case, then the OLine problems aren't quite so bad. I want Amano gone as much as the next guy, and was pretty pissed that the Titans didn't take a C during the draft, but as a unit the pass blocking was pretty good so the FO might not have seen interior OL as such a big need.

    Ultimately I think this transition will help CJ and the run game. In the past, we tried to use CJ to wear down the D and hope he pops a big run every once in a while and it worked fine when we had top notch blocking, but CJ just isn't a big enough back to wear down a D for 4 quarters every game nor does he need to. CJ is explosive enough to make big plays at any point in the game, he doesn't need to wear down the defense 1st. He is just so explosive if the D gives him even the slightest opportunity or makes them pay.

    If the Titans are able to put together a dangerous passing attack, then that should open up more opportunities for CJ. He may see less carries and less total yards than in the past, but I think his carries will be a lot more effective, which is more important anyway. Whether the D was stacking the box against CJ or not (I have seen some arguments on the matter here lately), there is no denying that CJ is who every D keys off of, and he is every opposing Ds 1st priority. Even though we had a solid passing game at times last year, teams still never feared it, and still focused on CJ. Get teams to back of a little and force them to respect the passing game, then the running game should improve just because the defense will be a little more off guard, and that will help hide some of the flaws with the interior OL run blocking.

    That being said I am in no way advocating for Amano to keep his job.
     
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  9. Alex1939

    Alex1939 Space Invaders Champion

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    Good post Gut! Gut for GM!!!

    Now we just need Gunny to come in and tell us how you are an idiot and shouldn't be commenting negatively about the draft.
     
  10. Titans2004

    Titans2004 Pro Bowler

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    If you look back at the Patriots/Ravens/Steelers draft history they have all taken interior OL in the 1st rnd recently. First rnd interior OL have the lowest bust rate of any position.

    Nobody knows if a guy is going to bust or be a pro bowler 100% of the time. We all just do our best research and then rank the players as we see them.

    Everybodies board is going to be different and nobody's board is even close to being correct. You can't even grade drafts for several yrs anyway.

    Would I have drafted Wright in the 1st??? No because he wasn't BPA on my board and it wasn't a need position. But I have no doubt that the Titans did have Wright graded as BPA because they drafted an area that wasn't a need while passing on some guys that were in need positions.

    Time will tell if it was the correct move. But if I were a betting man I would say that DeCastro makes it to more pro bowls than Wright.
     
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