how valuable is haynesworth?

Discussion in 'Tennessee Titans and NFL Talk' started by Fry, Feb 3, 2007.

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  1. OK, I'm going to make a couple of comparisons to Washington, who blitzes a ton under Gregg Williams despite the fact that they don't have the personnel to do it successfully. I already mentioned that we had more sacks despite far fewer blitzes. And we also gave up fewer yards per pass, fewer passing TDs, picked off far more passes, and ranked much higher in QB rating allowed.

    My point about blitzing is simply in terms of the passing game. You just can't afford to blitz if your coverage isn't good enough to hold. You will get killed. Unlike you, Jeff Fisher knows this. Fisher was the guy who loved the aggressive 46 defense. But he is smart enough to know we can't run it successfully with our current roster. In a similar situation, he backed off the 46 in 1998 when they didn't have the roster to pull it off. Why? To give the team a better chance of winning games. Pressuring the QB is good, but not when the tradeoff is giving up more big plays and more points.

    Gregg Williams, on the other hand, is too stubborn to change his scheme to give his team a better chance to win and Joe Gibbs doesn't make him. How else can you explain how a system that was designed to pressure the QB and force turnovers ended up with the league's fewest sacks and the league's fewest turnovers.

    As far as an overall defensive comparison, yes we gave up 1.5 points per game more than Washington. But you might want to look below the surface just a bit. First off, we also forced 16 more turnovers. Those turnovers mean either defensive TDs or more chances for the offense to score points. I'd rather give up the extra 1.5 points per game on defense and get 1 extra turnover. Additionally, the 2 teams played different schedules. So when the quality of the opponent is factored in (as FootballOutsiders.com does) our defense is ranked #27 overall for the year versus Washington's #32. What's more, if you use their rankings that put more value in recent games than those early on, you can see that Tennessee's defense is ranked 15th in the league versus Washington's still worst ranked D.
    http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/teamdef.php

    As for Hill and Thompson, they get burned deep far too easily to let them play in a system that would only give them more chances of having to face deep balls. But they aren't the only problem. Offenses know how to counter aggressive. We simply don't have good enough players, either in the pass rush or in coverage, to even handle the underneath stuff if we blitz too much. If we had a Jevon Kearse/Dwight Freeney type DE who could consistently pressure QBs, it might be another story. But even blitzing we don't get enough consistent pressure to get away with lots of blitzing.

    As for pointing out how our secondary is so poor relative to others in the league, it isn't just about having 1 excellent player. If we had 1 excellent player and 3 average ones, it might be another story. But instead, we have 2 DBs who shouldn't be starting. Or at the very least, 1 who shouldn't start and another who is near the bottom rung of all starting CBs. As the saying goes, a chain is only as strong as it's weakest link. And half of our secondary is very weak...
     
  2. TitanJeff

    TitanJeff Kahuna Grande Staff

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  3. Gut

    Gut Pro Bowler

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    I'll try not to blow all of TJ's bandwidth...

    Since you ignored most of my response to your post, we'll try again and see if you debate the actual points I make. You'll notice I respond to yours...

    How much is a ton? How many times did they blitz this season? You either know or are making an assumption. Also, your point is ONLY valid if they were hurt more by the blitz than by NOT blitzing. Have any stats in this regard? If not, than the rest of the argument is your speculation...

    Really? How would you explain the Pats blitzing when they had an undrafted rookie CB starting and Troy Brown playing nickel for the first time in his career? As I recall, they not only didn't get killed, but WON THE SUPER BOWL!!! And they did face Peyton Manning in the playoffs and did quite well. Any explanations? And yes, the Pats did blitz Manning in that game too.

    FYI...Your theory assumes that all blitzes are 0 coverage blitzes and that while blitzing, you can't protect any of the players. This is simply WRONG!

    Then how do you explain us using it now on rare occasions and we don't even try to disguise it. And for that matter, we don't disguise our 0 coverage blitzes either and we're not getting killed doing them. Please explain how this is possible?

    Have I mentioned injuries and bad play by several players? Yes I have. Funny how you ignore that.

    And you keep saying how Williams didn't change his scheme and yet, I see no stats to support your assertion...

    I think we can assume the injuries and bad play played a major role in their terrible turnover stats. If you look at the same D last year (with a lot fewer injuries), their turnover stats are the same as ours...of course with those turnovers they had a decent D that gave up only 18pts a game while we have improved up to ONLY giving up 25 points a game.

    Wow, how do they factor in most recent games vs strength of opponent for that game? How do they factor in strength of opponent for that matter, by wins/losses or by offensive output/defensive output...and is that based on points, yardage, TD's, TD/INT ratio, sacks or what? I'm sure they come up with some amusing numbers, but they are hard to justify in reality. And how did our 15th ranked D get chewed up for 40+ vs the Pats and retain a 15th ranking? Were we ranked HIGHER before the Pats game???

    So we can explain the difference in turnovers as injuries and poor play, but their D was still better than ours in almost every statistical category. How many more points did they give up blitzing vs playing 7 or 8 guys back?

    Which system is that? The one we're using now? I've already mentioned we can use blitzes that would prevent that very thing...even in the 46 D.

    And they have no idea how to counter conservative? Come on, this isn't Little League. How do you think we give up so many big plays playing 7 and 8 guys back (and that includes Pac and Hope being beaten...not just Hill and Thompson)? Wouldn't you say that's teams knowing how to attack our conservative zone? I would!

    Any idea how to counter the various zone blitz and overload blitzes the Pats use? There are various counters but you first have to figure out who's coming from where. If you listened to the games in the playoffs, you heard 2 things. The Pats had to adjust their protection schemes because the Jets confused them and they weren't prepared for it. Secondly, the Colts got beat by the Steelers the year before by attacking the double read of Indy's OG's. They didn't blitz the house, just enough to put the OG in a bad situation which resulted in pressure on a 5 man rush. And the Colts spent a lot of time trying to figure out all the different attack schemes the Ravens used. This is how you play defense. If you sit back ultra conservative but don't have great players (like they had in TB under Dungy), you're not gonna have a very good defense because the better offenses will march the ball up and down the field on you and THEN kill you with the bomb.

     
  4. SupDawg

    SupDawg Guest

    SK...

    IMO, Fisher doesn't care what scheme we run. He is the type of coach to empower his assistants to let them do their thing. How else can you describe the sharp contrast in coaching styles? Fisher puts up with it because he's a good manager. He allows his staff enough rope to hang themselves.

    I am sure that the reduction in blitzing is not attributable to Fisher seeing we dont have the personnel to do so, but rather its not what Schwartz likes to do because it lowers his 3rd down %.
     
  5. TitanJeff

    TitanJeff Kahuna Grande Staff

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    Sup, do you actually think Fisher would allow his DC to run a bad system just to prove to the world it is unsuccessful? His arse is on the line even more than Schwartz's.

    Everything you see on the field, from personnel and scheme, have been created by or is approved by Jeff Fisher.

    Hate Schwartz? You should hate Fisher more.
     
  6. TNThunder

    TNThunder Guest


    His arse is on the line THIS year.....expect some changes.
     
  7. PitBull

    PitBull Bred to Brawl

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    A good defense starts with a good DC..
    We might have the best defense in the league and not even know it because of the way Schwartz runs it.. Schwartz needs to go. Enough said about that.
     
  8. TitanJeff

    TitanJeff Kahuna Grande Staff

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    Do you honestly believe Fisher will have more pressure after signing a three year deal than he did last season?

    It's about winning football games. I don't care where we rank in any category as long as we win. Think Fisher would still be here if he went 4-12 but had the #16 defense in the league?
     
  9. TNThunder

    TNThunder Guest

    I think last year was a fluke, and it played out different than he expected.
     
  10. PitBull

    PitBull Bred to Brawl

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    Things sure turned out different than what anyone expected/planned.

    I think the plan was "lets just get through with the 06 season and surprise everyone in 07 cause we're not ready yet", but the way KFC was playing forced mgt to make the decision to throw in VY. Apparantely thats what i think Jeff meant when he promised that'll we'll start off next season with a 5-0 start. He knew that we'll be bringing in some major players in the offseason and i think it was planned to be a coming out party in 07.
     
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