Lockers Accuracy Suggests Breakout Year?

Discussion in 'Tennessee Titans and NFL Talk' started by xpmar9x, May 6, 2013.

  1. Fairweather Fan

    Fairweather Fan Starter

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    That article is dated October 12th last year. Locker also had far less attempts than the other qbs on the list. Sample size was way to small. I'd love Locker to succeed, but I don't think there is anything to learn in that article other than someone has too much time on their hands to compile those stats through week 5.
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  2. titan_fan_4ever

    titan_fan_4ever Titans Rule

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    That's some awesome stuff right there.... I've been commenting on Jake's accuracy, or lack there of, for so long now.

    I really hope your right, or rather that they are right. My assessment of Lock is not bais, I truly saw a very inaccurate QB heading our team - regardless of all the woes to be claimed. Also, in that chart (yes, he was injured) but his sample size is much smaller then others. In fact, his 115 dropbacks is at the very bottom of that list, with most close to or above 200. So its somewhat an incomplete story...

    I'm still not sold, but to someone like me it definitely renews my hope in him.... A bigger sample size with all the additions and a better offense to his strength, I am definitely more enthused. So thank you...
    #22
  3. Carp

    Carp Starter

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    Before his injury last year, Locker was playing very well, and his completion percentage was very good. I think people underestimate how badly the injury effected him.

    I think he takes a solid step forward this yr and puts up a QB rating at least in the mid 80's.
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  4. TheSureThing

    TheSureThing WHY DIDNT YOU DRAFT JOHNNY FOOTBALL?!?

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    If you have to make up a weird formula or invent new stats (a la Reggie Bush all purpose yards) to show a player is good, he's probably not as good as you think.
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  5. Obie09

    Obie09 Starter

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    The last interview I saw with Locker, he said he didn't think the injury really effect how he threw at all..unless I understood what he said wrong.
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  6. JCBRAVE

    JCBRAVE Tweet me @JCBRAVE

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    Yea Brady is trash, I agree

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  7. TheSureThing

    TheSureThing WHY DIDNT YOU DRAFT JOHNNY FOOTBALL?!?

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    uhh brady doesn't need weird formulas for his fans to justify his greatness unlike the Wild Thing
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  8. JCBRAVE

    JCBRAVE Tweet me @JCBRAVE

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    Youre just mad I made up that cool gif, and you didnt
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  9. Titan43

    Titan43 Pro Bowler

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    This just really isn't true. If you watched any Colts games last year, you would've seen that Luck threw a lot of screen/quick slant passes last year.
     
    In fact, Locker and Luck were nearly identical in yards per completion and yards per attempt
     
    Locker - 6.93 yards per attempt, 12.4 yards per completion
    Luck - 6.98 yards per attempt, 12.8 yards per completion
     
    We can also look at the "Air Yards" (as one site calls it) which is basically just looking at how far the ball went in the air past the line of scrimmage, and up to the catch.
     
    Locker - 4.3 air yards/att
    Luck - 4.4 air yards/att
     
    Again, they are virtually identical
     
    You can also see how what % of YAC (yards after catch) contributed to their total passing yards. 38% of Locker's yards came from YAC, and 37% of Luck's yards came from YAC ... again very similar.
     
    Locker was actually the more accurate QB when it comes to completion % as well, although its pretty close.
     
    Locker - 56.4% completions
    Luck - 54.1% completions
     
    Both had roughly 8% of their passes dropped
     
    Basically my point is that Locker and Luck were not far apart last year at all, and if you watched some Colts games you would've seen Luck make some pretty poor decisions, and some pretty bad throws. But since he has the ESPN hype machine behind him, and his team actually won some games everyone seems to think that he is some great QB. He and Locker are actually pretty close.


    sources:

    profootballfocus.com
    advancednflstats.com
    espn.com
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  10. TitanJeff

    TitanJeff Kahuna Grande Staff

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    First of all, I appreciate a good football debate where actual stats are used to support your viewpoint. No, I didn't see every Luck game but did see many highlights and maybe five of his games. I saw all of Lockers.

    Going with what I saw, Luck, in his rookie season, is the more accurate QB. If given the opportunity to trade the two, I'd jump all over Luck's upside as would the vast majority of Titans fans.

    That isn't to imply we all want Locker to fail. I'm as hopeful as the next guy but he has to improve by leaps and bounds.
     
    Luck had 4374 completion yards last season. Locker had 2176. That's over double the yardage in only six more games than Locker played. Yes, totals do count.

    One important thing stats can't tell you are the types of defenses each faced. We know the Titans were blown out of several games and that many of the defenses Locker faced were soft to prevent the deep reception. Any QB in the league is going to boost their completion % in that setting. Locker was given a lot of room to dump down.

    Do you want to look at game-winning drives? Locker 1, Luck 7. Luck put his stats together while winning football games. Luck got a lot of his in the fourth during blowouts.

    TD% - Locker 3.2%, Luck 3.7%
    INT% - Locker 3.5%, Luck 2.9%

    Locker was more likely to throw a pick than a TD last season. Luck, not so much.
     
    Here is the one stat I heard used often last season by many of the taking heads. They claimed Luck went to his WRs more than most which accounted for his lower completion %.

    This stat was more challenging to find but find it I did. http://www.sportingcharts.com/nfl/stats/quarterback-air-yards/2012/

    Luck was #8 last season with 2,644 air yards. That is 4.2. Locker was #15 with 1,282 and a 4.1 average. That seems to support your stats but, because he had many more yards overall, means he did it more often and still had the higher completion %.

    Based on the above, I don't think there is any doubt that Luck had the better year in his rookie season. That doesn't mean Locker can't do better. No doubt Luck will improve.

    QBs must react the fastest and most accurate in the red zone where the windows are much smaller. To me, this tells the story best.

    Red zone passing:
    Locker: 39.3% completions
    Luck: 48.6% completions

    Locker has to be better in 2013 or the Titans will struggle.
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