Mock accuracy..............

Discussion in 'NFL Draft' started by bongo59, Jan 14, 2007.

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  1. bongo59

    bongo59 Starter

  2. A.D.

    A.D. It's (insert day of week here) & Colts still SUCK Staff

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    That's Gosselin's 2005 draft, not 2006. In 2005, Gosselin got nine right (direct hits) in the first round - Smith, Brown, Edwards, Williamson, M Jones, Clayton, Washington, Campbell, Miller.

    2006 was another story. Here's his mock the day before the '06 draft: http://www.dallasnews.com/sharedcon.../stories/041606dnsponflmockdraft.1e330dc.html

    Gosselin got six right last year - Hawk, Davis, Greenway, Cromartie, Hali, and Addai.

    In reviewing various mock drafts last year, Mike Mayock (nfl.com) had the best one. Mayock got eleven right last year - Young, Ferguson, Hawk, Davis, Huff, Whitner, Leinart, Cutler, Ngata, Greenway, and D Williams. http://www.nfl.com/draft/story/9403416

    Note: I only considered mocks before the Texans' Mario instead of Bush announcement. You'd be surprised by the number of arses who "revised" their mocks after that announcement, just to make their predictions look better. I also compared the draft position, not the team. For example, Mayock and three others got credit for predicting Cutler would be picked eleventh, although it was by the Broncos and not the Rams, due to one of several draft day trades which can't be predicted.

    Here's how the others fared, with the number of direct hits:
    CBS (Dodd), 6
    CBS (Judge), 9
    CBS (Prisco), 6
    ESPN, 6
    Fox Sports, 8
    nfl.com (Kirwan), 5
    nfl.com (Carucci), 2
    SI.com (Banks), 10
    SI.com (King), 4
    About.com, 6
    AOL/NFLDraftScout.com, 7
    Consensus Draft Services, 6
    D & J NFL Mock Draft, 4
    DraftAce.com, 6
    DraftBoardInsider.com, 4
    DraftDaddy.com, 5
    DraftKing.com, 5
    FantasySharks.com, 4
    FFToolbox.com, 2
    FantasyTailgate.com, 3
    FootballMinds.com, 5
    Great Blue North, 5
    Huddle Report (Jones), 7
    DraftConnection.com, 2
    NFLSmackdown.com, 4
    NFLMockDraft.us, 2
    SportsOutlaw.com, 4
    VIPSports.com, 4
    Yahoo Sports, 7
     
  3. Fry

    Fry Welcome to the land of tomorrow!

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    mayock also called aaron rogers to the packers in '05.
     
  4. adamwinn51

    adamwinn51 Starter

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    Bongo, did you just pull the figure 88% out of your ***? He must have done very well in 04 if he averaged 88% over the last three years. 9 right in 05 and 6 right in 06? Not that impressive. I bet I could get 5 right this year and I don't really know jack about the players.
     
  5. A.D.

    A.D. It's (insert day of week here) & Colts still SUCK Staff

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    The 88% he refers to is computed like this. If 27 players of the 32 Gosselin predicted as first-round picks were actually first-round picks, then he would have an 84% "success" rate for that year. I personally don't think that's a real barometer of accuracy when a writer is given credit for "correctly" predicting someone to be drafted #10 if they actually get drafted 24th.

    There's no doubt Gosselin is good, it's just that he didn't do quite as well in '06 as in '05.

    And I believe Bongo, myself, and half the members of this site could correctly predict over 80% of the first-round picks, if you don't consider what position the players are actually selected in.
     
  6. TitanJeff

    TitanJeff Kahuna Grande Staff

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    Anyone wanna go back and check out the goTitans.com mock? That could be ugly.
     
  7. Puck

    Puck Pro Bowler

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    yeah, do it Jeff
     
  8. titansfan9

    titansfan9 Camp Fodder

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    actually I did that this morning, a few people called Woolfolk in the 2003 NFL Draft...
     
  9. A.D.

    A.D. It's (insert day of week here) & Colts still SUCK Staff

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    Comparing the goTitans predictions with the actual results, goTitans correctly predicted Young at #3 and Ferguson at #4, for two direct hits. 25 of the 32 first-round projections by goTitans were actually selected in the first round, a 78% "success" rate.
     
  10. TitanJeff

    TitanJeff Kahuna Grande Staff

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    We projected for the Titans Woolfolk in '03 and Antwan Odom in '04. I think had Rolle in '05.
     
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