NFL experimenting with new PAT rules

Discussion in 'Tennessee Titans and NFL Talk' started by JCBRAVE, Jul 31, 2014.

Thread Status:
Not open for further replies.
  1. Thaddeus43

    Thaddeus43 Sunshiner President

    7,660
    3,779
    779
    I don't really agree ...

    kicks starting at the 25 yardline would be a 42 yard FG attempt (25 +7 yards for snap, + 10 for EZ). The majority of those kicks will be made, but thats not a 'gimmie' like the current extra point is today.

    Looking at all NFL kickers' accuracy last year from 40-49 yards out (since I couldn't find 42 specifically) they were 254/306 ... (83%). Now I now that takes some longer kicks into consideration, but still is much lower than the 99% that they are currently making.

    I think that would actually add a lot of strategy to the game. Teams would be much more likely to go for 2, but missing just one (or making one when the other team only went for 1 EP) could be the diference in winning and losing ... and at 83%, there would still be pleny of misses through out the year (if teams tried this frequently). Its not a gimmie like the EP is now.

    On the flip side, if you move the kick too far back, then teams will just continue to only opt for the 1 point rather than 2 ... and not much changes strategy wise
     
  2. JCBRAVE

    JCBRAVE goTitans 2019 Survivor Champion

    82,274
    26,649
    1,509
    I did say "almost" didn't I?
     
  3. Thaddeus43

    Thaddeus43 Sunshiner President

    7,660
    3,779
    779
    yes ... 83 is not almost 99

    83% success rate is high enough that teams will try it, but low enough that we will see plenty of teams miss (esp teams with young/not that great of kickers) ... adds a lot more strategy.

    For instance, Titans have a young unproven kicker and are playing against the Pats and Gostkowski (who lead the NFL in FG made). Titans score the 1st TD ... what do you do? Put your young kicker out there to go for 2? If he misses you set your team back a 1-2 point deficit (and a 42 yard FG is no gimmie for a young kicker with pressure). Or go for 1 knowing that the Pats kicker is really good, and can make that FG 9/10times, and there is a good likelyhood that they will go for it, again setting you back 1 pt.

    and this decision must be made after every TD

    MUCH different than a extra point today
     
  4. JCBRAVE

    JCBRAVE goTitans 2019 Survivor Champion

    82,274
    26,649
    1,509
    When half the starting kickers are knocking in over 83% of their attempted 40-50yards its safe to say its nearly a gimme. The percentage is drastically dragged down by bottom of the barrel players.

    I get what youre saying, but the perception is a FG from the 25-yard line is almost automatic. Over 3/4 of attempts are good.
     
  5. JCBRAVE

    JCBRAVE goTitans 2019 Survivor Champion

    82,274
    26,649
    1,509
    Oh yea I almost forgot, the goal posts are higher this year, that makes it a little more interesting
     
  6. Thaddeus43

    Thaddeus43 Sunshiner President

    7,660
    3,779
    779
    In my mind there is a distinction between the word 'automatic' when referring to FG and when referring to extra point.

    If you hit 83% of field goals ... sure that is a gimmie.

    If you hit 83% of extra points ... you suck a$$

    We need to think of this in terms of Extra points ... if you hit 83% of your extra points, the way coaches approach the game changes drastically.
     
  7. RockyTop Fox

    RockyTop Fox Offensive Coordinator

    3,277
    1,801
    719
    Yeah this is crap, I don't want to see teams going for 2 every rip like it's a damn madden game.

    If the PAT has become so impossible to play from a defensive standpoint, just make the 1 point automatic unless you decide to go for two. Or just leave it the way it is. Blocked or fumbled PAT's still happen.
     
  8. RavensShallBurn

    RavensShallBurn Ruck the Favens

    24,928
    10,440
    939
    The head coaches need to get together on this one... Either decide to shank all the PATs or just go for 2 every time.

    Embarrass Goodell and show him what happens when you f*ck with the game.
     
  9. GoT

    GoT Strength and Honor

    69,302
    19,795
    1,659
    in 1940 the PAT was 85.8%. For comparison the FG was 40.0%. Some teams used differnt guys for the different kicking duties. Smaller rosters meant most teams did not have a kicking specialist. Kicking was just a task players did. Job security of the era I am sure.


    by 2013 the PAT was 99.8% - 1260 of1262. For comparison FG was 86.5%. All distances of FGs combined. Of course we know all teams carry K specialists and there are another dozen or so NFL talent capable Ks out there at any given time just in case.

    Robbie Gould and Blair Walsh had the only misses in all of 2013 regular season NFL


    Also remember that these kick % are with the special K ball instead of the well worn pigskins of old

    Currently Ks are over 50% 50+ just astounding.


    Last year the NFL was just under 50% on the 2 point conversion 33 of 69


    so if you have a 50% chance of making 2 then having 100% chance at 1 is the same thing. Only game situations would make a coach actually choose to go for two. I say make the coaches earn their $s by making them make a choice.

    Make the XP whereever the Ks are at 75% so that going for 2 is 33% more effective than kicking the XP. FWIW I would be in favor of a 3 point coversion if the chance of success was under 5% - but thats just me and there is no spot on the field that current NFL kickers are that inept. So maybe making the Team take a snap from the XP spot as a 3 point try? just thinking while typing.

    NFL Ks are successful 89.8% between the 30s
    NFL Ks are successful 87.0% between the 40s - so clearly the ball needs to be farther than the 28 yard line IMO
    NFL Ks are successful 67.1% from 50+.

    So somewhere between the 28 yard line and the 38 yard line is the 75% spot (adding 17 yards for the typical 7 yard setback and 10 yard EZ)

    anyways the best I can figure the spot on the field where NFL Ks are about 75% is .......


    34 yard line for about a 75% chance of making an opposed FG. Dome teams would clearly have an advantage at this distance. So I dont see it happening.


    Realistically I could see the 25 or 30 making at least some true bonus for going for 2


    looking at the raw numbers I discovered something I found stunning. Ks attempted almost the same number of FGs between the 30s as the 40s. 295 and 293 respectively with a success rate of 90% between the 30s and 87% between the 40s. No wonder NFL coaches attempted so many FGs from the 40
     
  10. Fry

    Fry Welcome to the land of tomorrow!

    42,307
    15,453
    1,389
    A goofy quark with this rule I've noticed in the preseason; a team kicks a 25-yard FG and gets three points. Next drive there's a touchdown and the 33-yard PAT is worth one point.

    This rule just doesn't make sense.
     
Thread Status:
Not open for further replies.
  • Welcome to goTitans.com

    Established in 2000, goTitans.com is the place for Tennessee Titans fans to talk Titans. Our roots go back to the Tennessee Oilers Fan Page in 1997 and we currently have 4,000 diehard members with 1.5 million messages. To find out about advertising opportunities, contact TitanJeff.
  • The Tip Jar

    For those of you interested in helping the cause, we offer The Tip Jar. For $2 a month, you can become a subscriber and enjoy goTitans.com without ads.

    Hit the Tip Jar