O Bennett Where Art Thou

could be good, could be bad... from our franchise it looks real good +13

 

Interesting..

I don't know how solid those conclusions are.

Great stuff from jeff there though bennett only missed 3 games in 05 not 5.

All three of those kids played well as rookies so we have to think they have more to offer than what we got last year. Note that all three are in houston now with vince so we know they will be ready to play.

Thank you jeff and slackmaster for giving us some reasoning as to why we can be better next year. We have to try and be more positive.

 

I think over the past few years as teams have struggled to manage free agency and the cap, the ability for a team's fortunes to swing dramatically has increased signifcantly.

I posted previously that on recent history we can expect at least 4 teams with losing records to make the playoffs. I went and had a further look at those stats and it really dispels the concept of "re-building in the modern NFL. Teams typically don't have to wait 3-4 years to turn their record around(wither positively or negatively)

In 2002, 20 of the 32 NFL teams had a record that equeated to winning 0,1 or 2 games more or less than the year before. The remaining 12 NFL teams had a change in number of wins of 3 or greater.

In 2005 and 2006, this number has been more than reversed.

In 2005, only 9 teams had a record that equeated to winning 0,1 or 2 games more or less than the year before. 23 teams had a change in number of wins of 3 or greater. Similar story in 2006 - (11 and 21).

What does this mean?

We are more likely to be an 11 win team or a 5 win team than we are to have a similar record to last year.

Rebuilding a franchise isn't a long process. We can make significant roster moves and be in the penthouse or the cellar quickly. Obviously we've rolled the dice this offseason with the guys we have at RB and WR. If they don't work out we can expect a season of 5 or less wins. If they do, playoffs are a distinct and reasonable possibility.

 

Over the last 5 seasons, only 3 teams have had a winning record for 5 seasons straight (NE, Indy and Denver) - All AFC teams.

Likewise only 3 teams haven't had a winning season over that same span. (Detroit, Arizona and Houston).

I agree that the reasons will be many and varied, but where Peter King articles and pre-season magazines predict the rankings will fall out almost identical to the end of last season, be aware that is highly unlikely to be the case.

 

The Football Outsiders number don't really tell us anything. IMO the results are not conclusive and really don't prove anything one way or another.

I think it is pretty safe to say Young and the three WRs will all improve.
However, when you are that bad it is really hard not to get somewhat better. The main issue is how much they improve. Take the scenario with Bennett who obviously didn't have a great year. He could have easily put up a 1000 yard year if he had better QB play considering he had the numbers he did despite the QB. When a WR like Bennett goes all game with very few yards and catches I'd say it wasn't the great coverage or his inability to get open. More than likely it was the QB who didn't throw well to anyone else in those games either. With that said can a guy like Roby or Williams (lets assume Jones is comparable for now although we still don't know) improve to the level of Bennett? Are those guys capable of putting up 700-800 yards?

Another issue that could really help the offensive production (and significantly hurt production last year) is the play of the defense. If our defense doesn't improve it will be more difficult for the offense to get the opportunities. However, the bottom line is when you are dead last in something it doesn't take much to predict you will get better. The question is can we get much better with the personel we have now.

 

Carpy is right..

It doesn't take long to build a team and we have seen many examples of teams going from 5-11 to 11-5 in one season. We are not as bad as a 5-11 team.

I think with all our worry about WR and RB what we will ultimately get will be something comparable to what we got last year. The collective talents of white, henry and whoever our #3 is will give us around the same rushing yards and maybe even more receiving yards than last season. I think our three third year wrs(amigos) will play well overall. I would not be shocked to see a williams or roby lead the team in receiving yards.

Henry is a better pass receiver than either white or travis henry and gives us something we didn't have. Henry also has big play speed. I like the idea of having brownie back and really think he will be closer to 2004 form. Brownie was one of those the coaching staff told to bulk up last year. Well he plays better around 220 than 230. Certainly brown didn't get beat up from last season and has no lingering injuries. Brown is still only 26 so why give up on him?