Percentage of Superbowl Wins Based on # of Superbowl Appearances

I was bored for about an hour and started digging through NFL team's Super Bowl appearances and their win to loss record. This may not be the right place to post so feel free to move it.

I wanted to know the percentage chance to win a Super Bowl based on how many times the team has already appeared in one. I also wanted to know the chances that the team has already won a Superbowl with each different number of appearances. The obvious assumption is the more times you appear the greater the chance your team will win. From what I found though, through history, that isn't the current case. What I found was kinda interesting:

# of SB appearances - % chance to win/ chance you already won 1

1 - 33 % chance to win/ 0 % chance you already won 1

2 - 40 % chance to win/ 60 % chance you already won 1

3 - 33 % chance to win/ 33 % chance you already won 1

4 - 16 % chance to win/ 25 % chance you already won 1

5 - 64 % chance to win/ 178 % chance you already won 1

6 - 58 % chance to win/ 140 % chance you already won 1

7 - 43 % chance to win/ 75 % chance you already won 1

8 - 75 % chance to win/ 220 % chance you already won 1


I'm not the greatest math guru but this was what I did:

For chances to win I divided the number of total wins with the amount of games played for each category of respective number of Superbowl appearance.

For the chance that your team has already won 1 I divided the number of total team wins with the number of total team loses for each category of respective number of Superbowl appearances

So our Titans have 1 appearance. The next time we go into the Superbowl, as of now we would theoretically have a 40 percent chance to win based off history.

Another interesting thing is that once teams have gone to 5 Superbowls they are more than guaranteed to have at least won 1 Superbowl by that time. Again this is all obvious but I just wanted to do this for some fun and it allows me to hypothesis more what our Titans may be doing if we get to the playoffs.

Hope you enjoy!

 

Lol well it was interesting to me