QB rating vs Total QBR

Discussion in 'Tennessee Titans and NFL Talk' started by JustAFan, Nov 2, 2017.

  1. JustAFan

    JustAFan Special Teams Standout

    7
    3
    84
    Hi,
    This is my first post,
    I have been lurking for several years, finally signed up this year.

    What prompted me to post after such a long time?

    Quarterback Passing Rating!

    I see SO many posts on this forum where people reference or compare players passer ratings.

    Please stop!

    It's a VERY VERY VERY bad statistic to measure how good a QB is.
    It does not take into account situational stuff like, clutch vs garbage time.
    It does not take into account running, or fumbles.
    It counts a 5 yard pass the same, no mater if its 4th and 4, or 4th and 6.

    It's just bad.

    There ARE good statistics out there, post Sabermetric style stats, to measure QB performance.

    My personal favorite is Total QBR, created by the stat folks at ESPN.
    http://www.espn.com/nfl/qbr/_/week/8
    This link shows the over all season performance so far.

    Note that Mariota is 58.3 over all 2017, good for #11, about where the eyeball tests says he belongs, above average, but not great. (Yet, we hope)

    He was #9 prior to his poor game vs the Browns.
    (One thing Total QBR does not take into account is injury, it just looks at performance, not why he had a bad game.)

    For all that he had a bad game vs the Browns, it was not THAT bad, Total QBR of 48.1
    (50 is considered an average NFL QB.)
    He got credit for all those drives he led down the field for field goals, clutch play at the end of the first half, and for a game winning drive to get a field goal in over time.
    This was his worst rating of the year, which shows his consistency.
    Compare that to Winston, who got a Total QBR of 7.0 vs Carolina on Sunday.
    Or Brady, who in week 1 vs KC had a 31.6 QBR.
    (OK, Brady rocks the QBR over all, last year #2 over all with 79.4 and this year #4 with 67.6, he just had a bad game week 1.)

    (If you look at Total QBR stats, make sure you look at the ADJUSTED Total QBR, Mariota's raw QBR vs Cleveland was 60.1, it got adjusted down to 48.1 because, well, it's CLEVELAND.)
    (Compare that to week 2 vs Jacksonville, his raw 31.8 got adjusted up to 52.5, cause prior to all the injuries Jags had a really good defense.)


    What all this says to me, is the Titans are not losing because of Mariota.
    Sure, people want better than 11th rated QB in the league, but that's still good.
    (Think of poor Cleaveland sitting at #32.)

    (I blame inconsistent defense and over reliance on the run game for 2 of the 3 losses, the third loss is on Cassel.)
    #1
    • Informative Informative x 3
  2. Fry

    Fry Welcome to the land of tomorrow! Tip Jar Donor

    38,121
    13,778
    1,339
    QBR is another fake, propriety ESPN statistic.
    #2
    • Hit the Target Hit the Target x 1
  3. HurrayTitans!

    HurrayTitans! Starter

    5,046
    1,468
    459
    Bingo. The stat is stupid like ESPN and shouldn't be used. Rating alone doesn't always tell the story but it's far from a bad statistic.

    This is the crap that loses viewers too. ESPN also uses that Wins above Replacement for baseball. Awful stat with fake projections.
    #3
  4. HurrayTitans!

    HurrayTitans! Starter

    5,046
    1,468
    459
    For the sake of argument, I was trying to find a career QBR rankings, doesn't exist.

    I have a feeling it would be highly debatable on accuracy after seeing it. For example, the #6 overall QBR season ever is 2007 David Garrard.
    #4
  5. JCBRAVE

    JCBRAVE Wake up and die right Tip Jar Donor

    70,904
    23,192
    1,139
    Isn't QBR a relatively newer stat?
    #5
  6. ICBW

    ICBW Starter

    683
    290
    169
    didn't he throw like 300 passes before throwing his 1st pick or something. If QBR is set up to show efficiency i dont know how much more efficient it gets than that.
    #6
    • Hit the Target Hit the Target x 1
  7. HurrayTitans!

    HurrayTitans! Starter

    5,046
    1,468
    459
    208/325. 2500 yards 18 TD and 3 INT.

    That's the #6 season of all time? Even if only dating back to 2006(?)


    For comparison nick foles 27-2 season is tied for 49th.

    Makes sense.


    On the best season list, the earliest year I see is 2006.

    I would think 10 years of QB play (not to mention they can definitely back fit data) should be enough to actually calculate a career QBR.
    #7
  8. Scarecrow

    Scarecrow CEO of PPO Tip Jar Donor

    28,749
    13,266
    989
    PFF ranks QBR as the best measurement for a QBs performance when games are played on a Tuesday morning in April against zone defenses.
    #8
    • LOL LOL x 2
    • Winner Winner x 1
  9. JustAFan

    JustAFan Special Teams Standout

    7
    3
    84
    Well, in no way do I think any one statistic tells the whole story, but the point of my post was to point out that passer rating is VERY flawed, and does not track some very important stuff.

    Total QBR does track nearly everything one would want tracked, and yes its proprietary, and yes, its new, so it only goes back to 2006.

    So, to those who think its a terrible stat, what do you think is a better stat?
    Certainly not passer rating, but there are lots of post Sabermetric stats out there. I am open to suggestions.

    Oh, and to the David Gerrard commentators.
    The way you talk about it shows a lack of understanding.
    You only mention passing!
    The whole point of Total QBR is to include everything a QB does.
    Yes, passing is the most important, but its NOT everything.
    Not to mention the situationalism, how many completions were in crunch time with the game on the line, how many were in garbage time, etc.

    Oh, and ANY statistical measure, needs what ALL statistics need, the larger the data pool, the better the result, I.E. looking at a single game will of course give less accurate results than a whole season.
    When looking at Total QBR for a whole season, the top 5 (since 2006) are
    1) Brady
    2) Manning
    3) Rodgers
    4) Brees
    5) Brees
    #9
    • Informative Informative x 1
  10. JustAFan

    JustAFan Special Teams Standout

    7
    3
    84
    Oh, and that question I just asked, "So, to those who think its a terrible stat, what do you think is a better stat?" is CRUCIAL.

    Human beings are notoriously susceptible to "perception bias", so some form of statistical analysis is needed to hold the bias in check.

    Just as the "eye ball test" is needed to counteract the fact that no statistic is remotely close to a perfect measure of performance.

    Bottom line, we need statistical analysis of QB performance, passer rating very very bad at it, Total QBR much much much better.
    #10