It's way too early but lets play process of elimination , excluding the South for now. No Chance @ Playoffs : 1 Jets 2 Browns 3 Bengals 4 Chargers The last 2 obviously still have an outside chance while those first 2 are in full blown rebuild mode. Moving on to the South ... 5 Colts (if Luck doesn't make it back before week-6 you can almost count them out) 6 Jaguars (Bortles is not a playoff QB) Surprisingly out of those 2 teams I give the Jags a better hope to win the South. Going back outside the division 7 Bills (simply because they haven't gone since 99 so prove it first - disfunctional on top of that) So by my count that's roughly 7 teams that have an outside shot at making the playoffs. The Contenders : 1 Patriots 2 Raiders Both are heavy favorites for the AFC Title Game 3 Denver 4 Kansas City 5 Pittsburgh All 3 teams have looked solid and arnt going anywhere anytime soon 6 Baltimore 7 Tennessee 8 Miami 9 Houston These 4 are most likely clumped on the outside looking in but the Titans have the advantage out of these 3 simply because they don't have the Steelers or Patriots to leap frog - Houstons defense alone will keep them deep into the race as usual. If you go by this model, it's win the division or bust. The wild card teams look to be the AFC West - no one would be surprised if 3 teams come out of that division. Anyone else have something completely different?