Reaches?

Discussion in 'NFL Draft' started by Gut, May 4, 2008.

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  1. TNRADMAN

    TNRADMAN Starter

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    Yes, teams have multiple needs but they must prioritize those needs and make their picks accordingly. If your greatest need is a DE you are going to pick one earlier than later if possible and take the best one on your board. You have no control over what other teams do before you make your pick.

    The Titans greatest need was an offensive playmaker, not necessarily a WR or RB. They felt CJ was the best offensive playmaker available when their turn came around. Some might argue that the Titans 2nd greatest need was a DE and they took who they thought was the best one available in the 2nd round.

    I'm sure there are times that teams feel that their needs are equal at 2 or more positions. In that case they would of course take the best player available at any of their positions of need. This is to some extent dictated by what other teams do before you. In the event that there are no desirable players at your greatest position of need the team may draft for their next greatest need. You must be flexible and adapt as you go along in the framework of your overall strategy.

    Try not to think of the draft so much in terms of rounds, which are an arbitrary construct, but as a continuum. Rounds are kind of like seasons in that there is no absolute natural demarcation between them, for example, when does fall end and winter start. The chart I posted IMO generally supports the idea that the draft is more of a continuous process than a stepwise round fixated one. There is nothing intrinsically wrong with taking a player one round earlier or later than projected if it is to satisfy a position of need. It may be better to take a player/position that you really need a round early than to wait and end up with nothing. Of course, draft strategies are only general rules and there are exceptions to every rule.

    The point I am trying to make is that the Titans picks, except for maybe Hayes, were not big reaches. Perhaps, we should just agree to disagree....that's cool.
     
  2. The Playmaker

    The Playmaker pineapple pizza party

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    If a team has multiple needs then my thinking would be take the best available player at one of those positions. Obviously the Titans had CJ the highest ranked available and was a need position.
     
  3. Gut

    Gut Pro Bowler

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    Rad...

    I'm pretty sure I can attempt to trade with teams ahead of me so I do have control over whom they pick if I decide to trade with someone or jump in front of them.

    So if our biggest need was DE, we should have simply taken the best DE left no matter how he's rated? That is a great way to overdraft and thin out the talent on the roster...

    I agree that that is what I think they were thinking. However, it'd be hard to argue he's a bigger impact player than DeSean Jackson and we have a greater need for an explosive WR than RB...and we potentially could have had both!

    First, how would you say DE is our second greatest need when we have 2 starters already? PLUS, we have a plethora of DT and they are gonna move Jason Jones to DT....so they basically took a very very light DT...which would be hard to claim is also a position of need over say...OG where we have Amano penciled in. You could make a better case for WR (where we need an improvement over our starters) or a change of pace back in rnd 2. So, by what we know, they must have taken a player whom they thought was the best player available. I suspect he'll see action at DE...but a position of need? Maybe for a backup...but we have greater concerns.

    Actually, there is. The purpose of grading the players in the draft is two-fold. First, to get an idea of how good the player would be now and what that player's potential is. Thus, players are given a grade. A blue chip prospect usually means the player should become a Pro Bowl player (and perhaps a perennial all pro or even...a Hall of Fame player). A player rated in each rnd is graded on how good they are likely to be. So taking a player rated as a 3rd rnd pick in rnd 2 means you've given up a player with a higher chance at success and perhaps potential than the guy with a 3rd rnd grade (who perhaps should be a good backup and develop into a solid starter). Since no prospect is foolproof, you wanna take the guys with the best chance for success! You SHOULD view the draft choices as commodities. They have value. If you pick a guy 1 rnd early, the value of that pick has probably decreased (in terms of what other teams would give you for that pick). If there is no one rated at your spot that you want to take, you shouldn't draft a guy 1 rnd early, you should drop down and get the difference in value back and then spend what you think that player is worth (or at least close). And here i'm not talking about rnd but picks. Don't pick a guy 30 picks early when you could drop 20 spots, get value for the drop and still probably get him. Reaching 10 spots is a LOT better than reaching 30 and getting no extra value in return.

    That's where I'm comin' from...

    Sure.

    Gut
     
  4. RollTide

    RollTide All-Pro

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    I could read a Michener novel in the time it took to read soxcat and gut's posts. To quote soxcat on another board why not just accept the fact they are titans and shut up? This is a forum to discuss such things but lets not. :sad2:

    The CJ pick was a major reach for a player who doesn't even fill a need area unless we consider replacing chris brown a serious need. We did a major reach on paper anyway in getting hayes. We would like to think that our guys are budding geniuses but chris henry and paul williams suggest maybe not.
     
  5. Soxcat

    Soxcat Pro Bowler

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    Feel free to read our posts to educate yourself.

    The bottom line is had we taken Sweed with our first pick we wouldn't have posters or the draft experts yelling that we reached yet Sweed ended up being drafted almost a whole round later. I think a reasonable argument could be made that Chris Johnson wouldn't have lasted that long.

    Bottom line is what is done is done. Now all we can do is wait and see. We can talk until we are blue in the face about who we should have drafted and certainly a few years down the road will dictate who made wise decisions and who didn't. It is all speculation at this point.
     
  6. RollTide

    RollTide All-Pro

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    The 40 yard dash.

    Guy walks up to the line.

    Gets into a sprinters stance.

    Jumps at the gun and runs in a perfectly straight line for 40 yards.

    The run is done in gym shoes and shorts.


    CJ didn't lift, cj didn't run any of the other speed drills. He ran one time and was timed at the 10, 20 and 40 yard marks. No cone time to suggest how fast he changes direction. No shuttle either. CJ could have run on pro day to prove that the 4.24 wasn't a fluke he did not.

    Steve slaton ran the cone and shuttle on his pro day and posted exellent times. Slaton lifted at the combine and had 19 reps exellent for a 197 lb RB. How many reps would CJ had gotten if he had the balls to do it? 5 or 6?
     
  7. Gut

    Gut Pro Bowler

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    Give it a rest already...

    Exactly how all the guys at the combine are tested. And your point is?

    What do you mean fluke? It's not like if I ran a 40 yard dash 1,000 I hit 4.24 once on a fluke. You can either run it or you can't. Even if that's the best time he's ever run it stills shows how fast he is...which is the point of the test. A 1.40 10 yard sprint is simply phenominal! A 10'10" broad jump is awesome. And a 35" vertical for a player who's 5'11" is very good. Suffice it to say, he's explosive.

    For a guy wanting to get drafted as high as possible, it was smart for him not to run any other drills or run another 40. It could only hurt him.

    And for a guy who has access to a lot of information, you either choose not to read it or ignore anything positive about this kid. In CJ's JUNIOR year, he boasted the top power numbers among the team's skill position players with a 265-pound power clean-lift and a 315-pound bench-press. He's noted as a 'standout weightlifter.' Still wanna go with your claim of 5-6 reps?

    At least give a plausible argument...not one a 12 yr old could tear apart with 5 minutes of research.

    Gut
     
  8. RollTide

    RollTide All-Pro

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    Gut how silly..


    It doesn't translate to speed on the field what is so damn hard?

    And if your boy CJ can bench 315 once then why did he fail to show off that great strength in the combine? He jerks up the 225 bar 20+ times it could have meant an extra $500K to him. What is he gutless? That's like a guy who was timed by his team at 4.24 in the 40 but doesn't run it at pro day or the combine. He had a chance to show off his strength and didn't.
     
  9. RollTide

    RollTide All-Pro

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    Hey gut.

    Who has the better career kick return average chris johnson in college or chris carr in the nfl?
     
  10. Jwill1919

    Jwill1919 Coach

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    SO maybe we should've just made a major play and traded up in the second round to get one of the WRs still on the board...that would've been a great move, to move up 3 picks and give up a 4th or 5th in order to get Sweed or Malcolm Kelly. We would be being praised for surrounding VY with superior playmakers and having an excellent draft even while making a supposed "REACH" by taking CJohnson in the 1st.
     
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