Discussion in 'NFL Draft' started by The Hammer, Dec 17, 2013.
And I have to wonder why you didn't go all the way to the current drafts.
firstly, when I googled, it was easy to get a good concise list from 2000-2010. I'd have to dig for more than that, and I'm lazy.
Secondly, you can't really tell really accurately until they are given a good fighting shot in the NFL. Jury is out on a lot of QBs from 2011-now. RGIII for example, it gets real blurry to call him a bust or success. Fair enough answer? from 2010 draft, I think we've got enough sample to call them a bust or not.
It is hard yes. But now take a look at current decent QBs in the NFL. And how many of them were not a first or high second round pick. There are very few diamonds in the rough:
Tom Brady 6th round
Tony Romo undrafted
Russell Wilson 3rd round
Matt Shaub (Until this year anyway) 3rd round
Just for fairness' sake (it's worthless to do so, but) Here are the top QB picks since 2011... This does not bring up the averages at all...
Great, elite QB picks:
None yet, not even close
Luck, Scam Newton
EJ manuel, RGIII, Tannehill, Locker
Gabbert, Ponder, Weeden
Of course these are my opinion. I know nothing about Tannehill, so could be off on him.
Luck has shown nothing like he will be an elite talent yet. he may turn into one, but not yet.
So bump the total number up to 38.
Still only 5 are great,
^left out Russell Wilson
Russell wasn't a 1st rd pick.
Niiiiice. I like his stuff
The pure odds, if history continues to repeat itself, is that there is an over 70 percent chance that your 1st rd QB will be a complete bust. It's a bummer.
Espn did a story that said it was 50/50. I think they're way off. They counted in successes for other teams, and counted gabbert as a win because he was still starting at the time.
That is pretty funny. I think people honestly think that a coin toss is 50/50 but if you ask experts they will say otherwise. Something to do with the weight on one side and the amount of times you would have to flip it in order to get that close to 50/50 ratio.
It is all perspective and ya I agree, it is super hard to nail a franchise QB which is why now more than ever we should be gambling draft picks on them because they are so cheap to come by.
To be quite honest I wouldn't have much of a problem with proper FA scouting/signing and taking multiple QBs in a draft or multiple years in a row. We do it with WRs and other positions for depth why not for the most coveted position in the league?
definitely, if you draft and pick up enough, you will find a winner. Unlike the Locker saga, where we dedicate (aka waste) years on a QB with some hope that he develops, and it's not happening.
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