Titans/Jags Preview, Thoughts, and Predictions

What evidence do you have that indicates we will win? Show me the changes that have occurred between this year and last year that indicate things will be different this year. The argument "its a different season" is only a valid argument if you can show that things between the two teams are truly that much different. I don't think they are but you seem to. Explain.

 

Not a hater - I've felt uneasy about this one. Although I could see us winning this one for 3 reasons:

1) QB switch. We've seen it - no matter how much you want to spin it, changing QBs a week before the opener can be risky. Garrard hasn't taken 1st team snaps, and hasn't played against 1st team defenses this year. Maybe not an issue, since he started last year for them, but offense is about establishing rhythm and he hasn't had much opportunity to do that. Garrard has only accounted for 1 TD this preseason.

2) Jags first team has been a bit shaky this preseason - more an offense, but also on defense. They (like us) have some unproven players that are still trying to get their footing. Their defense has been soft in the middle of the field - where Moulds and Scaife will be looking to find room.

3) If our defense can play as physically as they did in preseason, and the game is close at the end, I have to give the advantage to Vince (and Bironas) over Garrard (and Scobee). Garrard has a history of making big mistakes under pressure, while Vince at worst has learned to minimize mistakes and at best comes through with a game breaking play. I also give the advantage to Chow to come up with ways to use Vince better than they will use Garrard.

In any case, I think 20-17 is a pretty safe bet - both teams have sputtered on offense. Just not sure who will come away with it. I see this one being decided by a turnover - pressure is on Garrard and Lendale to protect the ball.

 

not exactly. we didn't know who was going to be our starting back until week three when travis and the o-line finally woke up. at WR drew bennett was the only known commodity; brandon jones was coming off of an acl tear and roydell williams and roby were not terribly productive the year before.

the beginning of this season is A LOT like last year, the only difference is we know we have a very good o-line and a pretty good idea who our back is going to be.

 

Wins/losses don't indicate anything, but 1st team stats often do. Vince passed for virtually the same % last season that he did last preseason. Our run defense last preseason was horrid, and that continued into the regular season. While it doesn't guarantee anything, we've at least seen indicators that those 2 key areas have improved from last year.

True - I'm not so concerned about the receivers (who sucked last year too) and pac (we've lost our best 1 defensive back, but upgraded our worst 2). But Travis Henry put us in a position to win that game last year... we came out running and stuck to it. I am a pretty firm believer in the O line and FB making as much (if not more) of a difference in the run game than the actual back, but until we hit the field on Sunday we won't know if Travis was a terrible loss. Lendale has to last the whole game, and we've never had to ask him to do that.

 

For one, don't assume that someone isn't following the titans closely just because they don't agree with you.

Of course we have new players that "could" replace the production that we got from other players last season. Everyone has players in starting positions. But our starting RB has never produced a full season in the NFL, and our backup has had significant injury issues. You can't just assume that the massive rushing game that we had last season will continue.

Hill is not gone, he might even start on sunday. The depth chart has finnegan/hill/griffen listed as starting CB.

Also, we haven't gotten that much better at CB, we've just gotten much better depth.

You can't assume that the defense will make a big jump until it does. Sometimes these things actually happen, sometimes they don't. At this point, our defense is still a big question mark. So are our WR. Moulds hasn't been on the team very long, I doubt we can count on him for much production in the first month of the season.

We certainly could be better, if everyone plays better. But that's true of everyone in the NFL. What remains to be seen is if our players can execute the way that we hope that they will.

 

I see us winning this game 24-17 in a physical game. Just have that feeling that we get a tough win thats sets the tone for the rest of the season.

The Def. shows solid improvement as does VY and LW is our horse...him and Brown get the rock 25-30.

 

Well, I think he said it well. Yes, I am aware of the changes but what I said before is that I don't think they will be enough to change what happened last year. First, yes defense should be better but my focus was on the offense. Did we replace the players we lost on offense. Yes, as you pointed out we did, but were those players a lot better than what we had last year, probably not. What he likely have are a bunch of lateral moves with some having more question marks than last year, i.e., Lendale. Note that last year we had a very solid running game, but we really struggled to run against the Jags. Will we run better this year with an unproven back than we did last year with Travis Henry? I don't think so (hope I am wrong). Will we pass better than last year. I hope so, but things look about the same as last year in the passing game so my guess is not much better. We likely won't score a lot of points for these reasons. Will he hold them to scoring less? I think so but I still think they win a close game. Could we win it. Yes, but this thread is a prediction thread of what we think will happen.

 

First I didn't say that I thought we needed to surround VY with loads of talent to succeed. All I said is I think we will still struggle and loose to the Jags this year. Primarily I think this because their defense is very good and our offense is not improved enough from last year. So please don't put words in my mouth. I love what this team did in the off season for the most part. I like that we were conservative in many ways and didn't over pay mediocre players. I like that see saw a nucleus of young talent and stuck with it. Those things are good and we can win by doing that. I think this team will have a solid season and likely be around 9-7 to 10-6 this year. But this thread is not about that. It is about the Jag game, and I think they will lose. We can still be a good team and lose a game.

Also, can you keep this from being personal? Did I succeed at everything the first time I tried? What kind of argument is that?

 

If you think the past has no bearing on prediction about future performance ok. I think you are just rejecting logic and common sense. Yes, you can give an anecdotal piece of evidence such as last nights game but after the first week, I am sure I can point to many games that go just as expected based off of last year. In fact, I bet that most of the play off teams we see this year, will be playoff teams from last year. Will there be change, will a few teams rise up and a few teams fall, yes of course because there is constantly flux in the league. But it is not random flux with no rhyme or reason and more often than not past performance is a good guide to reading that flux. Should I just say well just because the colts have dominated the last several years on offense, I can't say they will this year. Hell its a different year so I can't rely on the past. No that is rediculous. In fact last night can also be used to support the argument that the past in some way is an indicator of the future. The past would indicate that the Colts would put up a lot of points against a crappy defense and they did. Using the past to make that prediction would be helpful. You can't just toss out the past man. Are their mitigating factors that might change the past? Yes!!!!! I don't deny that. I just don't think their are enough to make me think we will beat the jags. Might I be reading those mitigating factors incorrectly and you are reading them correctly? Yes!!!!! Might I be relying to heavily on the past as an indicator? Yes!!!! In the end we have to rely on what indicators are the best to determine future performance. I choose the past you choose other factors. But you can't say the past is no indicator of the future. You just don't really beleive that at all. If I ask you to predict the 8 division winners in the NFL, you would likely, at some level, take into consideration the past performances of all teams. Granted you would take into consideration other factors but you can't tell me you would completely ignore the past.
You can disagree with me on how I am reading the indicators/evidence, but you can't completely reject the past as any kind of evidence. That is just being absurd.