When did OT Become Viewed as the "Safe" Pick?

Discussion in 'NFL Draft' started by Fry, Dec 24, 2015.

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  1. Fry

    Fry Welcome to the land of tomorrow!

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    At some point offensive tackle became viewed as the "safe" pick in the first round of the NFL Draft. I think it is one of the biggest misconceptions in the league.

    Since 2000, 57 OTs have been taken in the first round.

    2000:
    Chris Samuels(good player), Stockar Mcdougle(average. Played for 3 teams in 7 years), Chris McIntosh(injury bust)

    2001: Leonard Davis(moved to G), Kenyatta Walker(bust), Jeff Backus(solid LT for his career)

    2002:
    Mike Williams(moved to G. Ate himself out of the NFL), Bryant McKinney(great LT), Levi Jones(bust), Marc Columbo(injury bust)

    2003:
    Jordan Gross(solid LT for his career), George Foster(bust), Kwame Harris(bust)

    2004:
    Robert Gallery(was terrible at both LT and RT so he to moved to G. Was still terrible), Shawn Andrews(bust)

    2005:
    Jammal Brown(started great but faded very quickly due to injuries), Alex Barron(bust)

    2006:
    D'Brickashaw Ferguson(solid LT for his career)

    2007:
    Joe Thomas(future HoF), Levi Brown(bust), Joe Staley(solid LT for his career)

    2008:
    Jake Long(solid when healthy, which was not often), Ryan Clady(great when healthy, which is not often), Chris Williams(moved to G, bust), Gosder Cherilus(played for three teams in eight years. a disappointment), Jeff Otah(injury bust), Sam Baker(injury bust), Duane Brown(solid LT for his career)

    2009:
    Jason Smith(bust), Andre Smith(solid when he's healthy, which is not often), Eugene Monroe(solid LT), Michael Oher(a disappointment)

    2010:
    Trent Williams(good LT), Russell Okung(good LT), Anthony Davis(retired at 26), Bryan Bulaga(solid when he's healthy, which isn't often)

    2011:
    Tyron Smith(great LT), Nate Solder(solid LT), Anthony Castonzo(average), James Carpenter(moved to G, oft-injured), Gabe Carimi(bust), Derek Sherrod(bust)

    2012:
    Matt Khalil(started great but has faded), Riley Reiff(solid LT)

    2013:
    Eric Fisher(a disappointment), Luke Joeckel(a disappointment), Lane Johnson(a disappointment), DJ Fluker(moved to G where he is still bad), Justin Pugh(moved to G)

    2014 and 2015 will be disregarded because it is too early to tell.

    49 OTs taken from 2000 to 2013. 27 were busts/average/disappointments, 2 were moved to G with some sort of success, and the other 20 were at least somewhat successful as OTs. A hit % of 40.8%.

    Conversely, if the we compare the 40.8% hit of the OTs to what is generally considered the most difficult position to evaluate, quarterbacks, it is lower. 35 total QBs and 16 hits. A hit % of 44.4% since 2000.
     
    #1 Fry, Dec 24, 2015
    Last edited: Dec 24, 2015
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  2. Hormesis

    Hormesis Pro Bowler

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    I am firmly, and that means bedrock, on Ramsey! I don't care if we trade out or not, nor do I care if it is #1 or #2. That is the player this team needs to bring in. Period! Whatever this team needs to do to secure this man playing for our team is all I am about! Make it happen! He makes the puzzle possible.
     
  3. JCBRAVE

    JCBRAVE goTitans 2019 Survivor Champion

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    You could analyze any position and get those same numbers, but I agree we should not be going Tackle with our top pick. We need people around the ball who know how to make plays..
     
  4. Wolverine

    Wolverine Starter

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    I firmly believe in trading down this year, but not out of the top 10. We have so many needs that any combination of draft picks/vet players would be a boost.
     
  5. nickmsmith

    nickmsmith Most poverty RB core.

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    Joe Thomas is a future hall of famer? I know he makes a lot of pro bowls (every year) but can a player on a team with a 44-84 record Since he got drafted, really be considered one of the all time best?? Would his team be any worse off without him? If he can't help his team win more that 44 games in 8-9 years, then that's not HOF in my book.

    If they had just forfeited the pick, they'd be in the same position.

    I hate OT top 10 picks, too. Joe Thomas is proof why a high T pick is a waste. Skill positions are more important. They'd be much better off with a great QB/WR/RB than with a pro bowl LT and nothing else. Except for an injury filled year... If you're in the top 10, you probably need more than a what an OT brings.

    Could have had Marshawn lynch or Adrian Peterson with that pick. Or Patrick Willis, darelle revis on the D side.
     
    #5 nickmsmith, Dec 24, 2015
    Last edited: Dec 24, 2015
  6. titanthakur

    titanthakur Pro Bowler

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    CB in the first LB in the second and worry about OL and RB 3rd and 4th?
     
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  7. Fry

    Fry Welcome to the land of tomorrow!

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    Which is why it's no safer than any other position. That's the point.
     
    #7 Fry, Dec 24, 2015
    Last edited: Dec 26, 2015
  8. Fry

    Fry Welcome to the land of tomorrow!

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    I don't think there is any doubt. My qualifications for HoF is whether the guy: 1. changed the way the game was played(Lawrence Taylor) or was one of the very best at his position over a prolonged period of time(Thomas).

    Joe Thomas is a 5x First-Team All Pro and 2x Second-Team All Pro. He's been in the league nine years. That's HoF in my book.

    Your argument basically says Calvin Johnson won't make it to the HoF, which is ludicrous.
     
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  9. nickmsmith

    nickmsmith Most poverty RB core.

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    @Fry

    Calvin Johnson won his team some games, unquestionably. He elevated the game of his QB. Made stafford a career. Joe Thomas hasn't elevated anything on his team. They have been pathetic in every phase. He has not helped the Browns in any conceivable way. Just saying.

    May I also mention that WR's stats are measurable. All OTs really can go off of is Pro Bowl berths and success of the offense behind him. He has one and not the other. Do many players make the HOF with a well under .500 playing record and never even close to winning a playoff game?

    I'm just saying that your origibal point is correct. Even if you do get a good T.. It won't help you unless every other position on offense is up to snuff.
     
    #9 nickmsmith, Dec 24, 2015
    Last edited: Dec 24, 2015
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  10. JCBRAVE

    JCBRAVE goTitans 2019 Survivor Champion

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    Unless you're watching every game twice or more, PFF stats on linemen are about as good as it gets to gauge those guys play... First time I watch a game I'm following the ball, 2nd and 3rd time I can slow it down to pick apart the rest of the game... PFF as silly as they seem at times does a really good job grading linemen..
     
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