Jake Locker led the NFL last season......................

Discussion in 'Tennessee Titans and NFL Talk' started by Kaeotik, Sep 6, 2013.

  1. Gut

    Gut Starter

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    Curls are easier reads and throws for the QB. Outs have the highest % of turning into a pick 6. Slants, while easy, are a bit harder on accuracy as the WR is moving close to full speed (and needs more accuracy) where as a WR stopping and drifting back to the QB is almost stopped or moving very slowly for the QB's throw. Only easier throw is to your check down RB who basically runs a 3-5yd 'curl' in the middle of the field but is even more centered AND is usually stopped.

    I don't love the play call but it's a very safe play to run and should have been easy to get either a short completion of 5-7yds or a throw away. Locker made a mistake, he's still learning without a full year of starting. It happens. Luck threw some picks last year too. Almost all first year starters do.

    Gut
    #51
  2. pepsidriver24

    pepsidriver24 @snydzie

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    1) I didn't say the Jags were using analytics before Gus. Gus is using it now. His detailed analysis led him to believe that It was worth trying to build around Gabbert in the draft, and give him a chance. Could've drafted a QB or brought one in from free agency to contend with him. Could've decided to draft 21 other positions in the draft. Read this before further blasting Gus Bradley like he is or was part of the problem in Jax: http://m.espn.go.com/nfl/story?storyId=9581177&src=desktop

    And here, it explains the breakdown of BDR. If you can't accept that throwing before getting slammed will not end well more often than not, that's fine. Believe that. But his metric even takes into effect what actually happened after the decision, and non-turnovers aren't weighted as heavily as turnovers after a bad decision. This is an older article on the BDR, but explains the basics: http://m.espn.go.com/nfl/story?storyId=2542482&src=desktop

    ...Peyton is a legend. Again, we don't need BDR for him. Don't use him in any discussion on why or why not BDR is useful. It's useful for people deciding on the Blaine Gabberts. Like I said, even if only for this year. It's not going to change who somebody is, but it helps you decide if their worth building around now versus jumping ship for that year's alternatives. If they have the chance to take an upgrade next year, then they might. But this year Gus used analytics to decide for this year. And it will probably help lead the Jags in the right direction. They can't go much farther backwards than last year now can they.
    #52
  3. Titanic_Sub

    Titanic_Sub Starter

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    How did my first post imply curls were automatically a goodd idea? Turd.
    #53
  4. Gut

    Gut Starter

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    Funny, you say the Jags were'nt using metrics when they drafted Gabbert but have concluded, based on metrics, that they should keep him and build around him. So what's the difference? And after reading that article I'm MORE skeptical! The owners son is the head of their metrics division and it's not like he was an expert in it before. No wonder they didn't listen to him. These articles are frequently written to tear down something and pump up something else. All these 'new' metrics talked about have essentially been in use for years prior. Passes defended versus # of targets is slightly different then pd's plus ints vs passes caught against, but notice there is no disticntion between zone and man defenses...is the corner playing press, off, inside or outside shade...versus what type of pattern...versus what type of QB...how good is the WR? When I see broad metrics that don't give you nearly enough detail, you have a low confidence score...which they mention. They also mention that stats don't tell the whole story because in football, they rarely do. If I say that Gabbert had the highest completion % of all QB's against a 6man rush, you think he's awesome when facing pressure. If he was only 6 for 10 and 4 of those were check downs that MJD broke tackles and scored a few times, Gabbert looks great (they become HIS stats) but MJD did all the work and is NOT really the best in the league when facing a 6 man rush...despite the stats saying otherwise.

    Effective metrics are useful for everyone. They don't say...Robby Cano is one of the great hitters in the game so we don't need to track his batting avg, on base or slugging. Everyone else is measured with it, why wouldn't you use Peyton and every QB in the league? If you ONLY use it on the Blaine Gabbert's of the world, how do you know what their numbers SHOULD be? Why not compare them? This puts you in a bit of a pickle because as I said before, the top QB's mess up the stats by throwing at WR's who are 'covered' and take shots while throwing TD passes! The problem with your metric is that it works backwards. We want to develop players into being super star franchise QB's...but those guys make those throws and make those decisions and stand in there and take shots in exchange for a crucial 3rd down conversion or a TD! This metric suggests you are better by not doing those things. There is a difference between being wreckless with the ball and knowing when and how to take chances. This metric can not quantify the difference!

    And when I read things like, their metrics guy charted all the opponents tendencies and the coach ignored him. WHAT?!?!!?? What do you think defensive coaches do all week? That's exactly what they do by formation, down and distance, field position score and if theyre smart, by personel groupings. That's been going on for decades! And other thing said like, they studied the usefullness of how often they should practice 4th and short compared to the number of times it comes up in a game vs say, the # of times a 2nd and long situation comes up and the coaching staff is SURPRISED at the 2 frequencies....I am shocked at how these guys have been coaching so long! A Pee Wee football coach knows that 2nd and long comes up a gazillion more times then 4th and short (and 99% of the time you WON'T be going for it on 4th and short) without looking at stats or any metrics....it's part of the game. But one thing your stats can't tell you is that when you NEED that 4th and short to win or lose the game on 4th and goal from the 6 inch line,having practiced that 4th and short play all of a sudden becomes much more important then thinking it only happens every few games. And didn't the titans just execute a 4th and 1 on their only drive of the game to produce a TD? In essense you don't practice 2nd down plays because you can use first or 3rd down plays to use that situation. It's more complicated then that but this is already too long. So should the Jags eliminate their practice of 4th and short and focus more time on '2nd and long?'

    I know you're probably thinking I don't believe in metrics and am old school, but I actually love metrics. My problem is when the 'new' metrics don't tell us anything we didn't already know. IE...Joyner saying Romo is a top 5 QB due to all his metrics....when Romo's old QB rating said the same thing.

    Gut
    #54