M. Hoge on espnews...

Hey ryanstitans I live in PA as well Hershey just thought I would let you know and Meril Hodge is a abosolute idiot and knows nothing about QB's so why is he analyzing them.

 

Here is my look into a crystal ball regarding Vince as a passer. Those who say he is nothing like Vick could not be more right.

Vince will be a great passer. He has all the tools: great arm, quick release, instincts, good vision, and confidence. He is raw from lack of experience. He grew up in the inner city, not a coach's son who went to QB camp every summer.

The fact that he can pass in the NFL as well as he has at this stage shows how good his instincts are for the position. All of this is IMHO, of course. One can never truly tell a player's ceiling until he hits it. But his passing success in college, I assure you, was not due to incredible coaching or a brilliant offensive scheme that was too much for college defenses. The talent around him, on the other hand, was very good, especially in 2005. His WRs in 2004 were pretty horrible.

The really erratic passes are a product of him thinking too much. He is thinking about the offense, his footwork, etc. He did it in mid-2004. The coaches responded by ceasing to pile things on to him and focusing on his strengths. Hence the almost exclusive use of the shotgun. With increased practice time and allowable contact with the coaches in the offseason, the mechanics and offense will soon be second nature.

He will probably never be a Dan Marino, in terms of threading the needle 30 yards downfield, but he will find open receivers and throw a very catchable ball. I see him as a 65% completion pct. guy, though not one with huge yards per completion numbers. His throwing and running style should complement our power running game pretty nicely and provide a lot of 10-15 play touchdown drives. We will also be deadly in the 2 minute offense, because if you give him 4 plays and a spread field, he is going to get 10 yards every time, whether by running or throwing.

And to keep it on topic, Hoge is a moron. He was simply rolling the dice that he would be right and look like a genius. Maybe he thought it would boost him to notoriety and a bigger piece of the ESPN pie. He has invested so much in being right on this one that it stands to reason he would back down at this point. As long as he doesnt, he is still the story. Eventually he might have to back down, or no one will want to hear anything he has to say. But at that point he will have already gambled and lost.

 

woow... hold your horses there vince10. Don't get us all excited.

I'd love to agree with you but i really can't see VY ever being a 65% comp QB.. The chart i have attached is the comp% of the 30 highest QB in the NFL for 2006.

I would love for VY to throw a 65% comp like Manning and Palmer, but i think that would be too high for Vince. I believe his range will be in the 60-61% comp at the most.

sidenote:
McNair's career avg comp%: 60%
Payton career avg comp%: 64%
Favre career avg comp%: 61%

 

I wouldn't write Vince off as not being able to be a 65% passer. Look at this chart. This is what he's done so far this year. There is no reason to think he won't continue to improve on a weekly basis.

 

Well, we certainly expect improvement, but he'll reach a ceiling at some point. He's not going to go up to 80% completion rate. I think we just don't realize that VERY few QBs at all maintain a 65% completion rate. The december jump is a pretty big stretch since there's only been one game. We'll see how that looks at the end of the month.

 

That would be so awesome, but unfortunately its not going to happen..

Ofcourse i do want him to get the highest cmp% than any other QB, but lets be realistic.. It would be hard to argue that VY would pull of a higher cmp% than Dan Marino (59.4% career) , or Payton Manning (64% career), or Brett Favre (61.2% career), or Tom Brady (61.8% career)..

as a matter of a fact, it would be darn difficult finding any QB who has a career cmp% of over 64%..
* atleast 5 seasons
* atleast 2000 att

VY will be one hell of a QB, but it would be impossible to argue that he'll be a more accurate passer than the names i've mentioned above..

 

I think you will have to wait until next year to really get a feel for how good of a passer he can be. Even against the Colts, most of his completions were very short dump passes of less than 5 yards. I can only remember two passes over 15 yards that were completed, one to Drew and one to Wade.

 

I love that chart Supdawg, imagine what he will do when he begins to read defenses like he did in college and gets some playmakers to throw to. I can see him easily over 65%

 

Vince has had two straight games at 60% or better..

It's pretty rare for any rookie to start.. Only Big Ben has more wins than Young and his QB rating is near the middle of other rookies starters.. How many wins and where his rating ends up over the last four games is anyones guess.. I think it will rise..

Rookie QB's Ratings or first year starting 8+ games W-L and key players


Peyton Manning 71.2 3-13--- (Marvin Harrison and Marshall Faulk)
Eli Manning 54.4 2-6 (Barber and Burress)
Joey Harrington 59.9 1-11 (not much help)
Byron Leftwich 73.0 3-10 (Jimmy Smith and Fred Taylor)
Ben Roethlisberger 98.0 15-1 Amazing..! ( a lot of help)
Ben is at 73.2 *20 ints* and 4-7 in 2006
David Carr 62.8 4-12 (not much help)
Troy Aikman 52.6 0-11 (Michael Irvin)
Bruce Gradkowski 66.1 2-7 (Cadillac Williams and Joey Galloway and a 2005 playoff team)
Vince Young 64.8 and rising fast 5-4 (not much help)
Matt Lienhart 72.1 has been pretty steady all year 2-6 ( two all pro wr's Boldin and Fitzgerald)
Some others in their first year as starters

Steve McNair (3rd year) 70.2 8-8
Carson Palmer(2nd year) 77.3 6-7
Brett Favre (3rd year) 72.2 9-7

If Vince keeps improving this year his rating will be near or over 70.0

 

That looks more like a stock chart to me on an uptrend. Can I buy a few shares of that stock? :grrhee: